Why Trump Will Win



Machiavelli described the role of a politician as portrayed by two animals: the lion and the fox. The first represents strength, the second, cunning. Machiavelli advised that a politician should simultaneously be a fox and a lion. “One must be a fox to recognize traps and a lion to frighten wolves: bisogna essere volpe o conoscere i lacci e leone a sbigottire i lupi.”

Since reality does not always play by Machiavelli’s rules, the United States has ended up with a lion facing off with a fox. The battle between Clinton and Trump is that of two visions for the United States. The great democracy or an untried model, sustained by all that has been the shameful history of the country: isolationism, manifest destiny, segregation, racism, brutal capitalism — the dominions of the most powerful. They proclaim order, but it is every man for himself, and the lion makes off with the best part.

The election in the U.S. will be something more than an argument between Clinton and Trump. More even than the fight for power between Democrats and Republicans; more still than a confrontation between liberals and conservatives. It deals with something crucial: the path of principles that the nation has pursued. On one side, diversity, openness, respect for individuals and their rights, rule of law, foreign policy, freedom of belief, expression, assembly and sexual preference. On the other, the lure of returning to a world of happiness, abundance and greatness (Make America Great Again), something like the caricature of life in the white American suburbs of the ’50s. No blacks in sight (they’re tending to the restroom), without Mexicans (they’re off gathering the harvest), without gays or lesbians (they’re still in the closet), without Muslims (they’re praying, of course), without abortions, without a human rights agenda and with friendly white police officers that have the total confidence of citizens.

As the presidential campaign advances Trump is headed, albeit with some stumbling, directly toward the presidency. Each absurdity, each nonsense and each stupidity gets him closer to the White House. Everyone bent on stopping him only pushes him further. His acceptance grows and his popularity increases. Three months remain and many things can happen. It’s just that under normal circumstances, the prospect of the Trump campaign derailing does not exist. Every time he stumbles, he comes back with greater momentum amidst the cacophony of his blind followers. More so than just going against all odds, he goes against Obama, the Clintons and American intellectuals.

Hillary and Trump are only a visible representation of the profound division in the United States. A brutal confrontation, a repressed, widespread hatred by those who never accepted such a brilliant, capable, assured and liberal black man, competent of leading, as President Obama. Those who never accepted that the White House — built by slaves in whose defense the country became divided and bloodstained, as his extraordinary wife Michelle reminded us — would end up having the descendants of slaves as tenants.

In this election the Democrats, led by Hillary Clinton, represent the best values: constitutional supremacy, intellectualism, the rights of women — which “are also human rights,”* as Hillary said upon accepting the nomination — the rights of gays and lesbians, climate change, the acceptance of immigrants, fair wages that are equal for men and women, the respect of all beliefs (including those of Muslims), international relations based on universal principles, the regulation of weapons, the legalization of marijuana and bridges in place of a wall. That should be enough to assure a win for Hillary moving forward.

It’s just that the majority of voters did not go to Yale, Harvard or Princeton — nor do they understand the liberal position; they don’t know what power is, nor its limits, nor its utility. The majority is made up of a white, formless, biblical multitude that hates what Hillary represents. With a wall their problems would be over. They could isolate themselves from the world and worship their charismatic leader, their illusory idol that represents all that they wanted to be.

Hillary said that Trump should realize holding the role of president is not a reality show but actual reality. The problem is that what Trump and his followers want is to live in an authentic reality show, and not in actual reality. It pains me to write it, and nothing would give me greater satisfaction than to have to eat my words, but I have the feeling that if the vote were today, Trump would win the presidential election.

*Editor’s note: This quote, though accurately translated, could not be verified.

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