Pyongyang Has Crossed the ‘Red Line’

For the first time in a long time, international markets are showing signs of worry about the escalation of the North Korean threat. As a result, trading on Wall Street yesterday started out with light losses that analysts attributed to nervousness about the pace of acceleration of Pyongyang’s rhetoric. The last remaining Stalinist regime on the planet detailed a hypothetical plan to attack the area around the U.S. base on Guam, a small territory of great geostrategic importance in the middle of the Pacific. In this way, North Korea added more fuel to the fire of its unprecedented verbal clash with the United States.

North Korea threatened Washington with a “sea of fire” for the harsh economic sanctions against it that were approved by the Security Council over the weekend. And on Wednesday it ratcheted up its provocative anti-U.S. rhetoric, threatening to launch four missiles against Guam. For his part, Trump, somewhat recklessly and without the agreement of his advisers, responded to Kim Jong Un that he would encounter “fire and fury like the world has never seen,” reminding him of the obvious superiority of U.S. military power.

Over the last few decades, there have been many stressful episodes provoked by Pyongyang’s threats in its relentless race to join the exclusive group of states with nuclear weapons. But today there are worrisome circumstances that trigger fears and the risk that these threats might end up causing some kind of armed conflict in the region, with unpredictable consequences.

To begin with, it seems that Kim Jong Un’s regime has settled into a crazy headlong rush that prevents him from gauging how far he can go without provoking a catastrophe. Not only by his direct threats against the U.S. – which could result in an instant war that would presumably be the end of the Kim family regime and also cause heavy casualties in neighboring countries like South Korea and Japan – but also by his actions in recent months. Let’s keep in mind that Pyongyang has carried out two test launches of intercontinental missiles since Trump arrived at the White House, ignoring his warnings and trying his patience.

Trump’s change of direction in the strategy for dealing with this conflict, as compared with his predecessors – especially Obama – is another factor adding to uncertainty and uneasiness. For years, the White House has sought to defuse the tension, opening channels of negotiation to various groups – truthfully, without success – and urging China to exert its influence on Pyongyang. The sanctions already imposed on the regime have been relatively limited, and Washington has assuaged the fears of Seoul and Tokyo, its allies in the region, by strengthening military alliances and defense systems.

But the Trump administration appears to have decided to go further. Trump believes that the international community’s inaction and the passage of time are working in Kim Jong Un’s favor. According to experts, Kim probably still does not have the technological capability to miniaturize nuclear warheads so they could be successfully used with intercontinental ballistic missiles. But everything indicates that he is already close to achieving this, which would make him a truly dangerous enemy. That is what the U.S. wants to avoid at all costs. And that explains why Trump is acting so anxiously, causing uneasiness for an ally like South Korea, which fears the dire consequences for its population should the verbal escalation between Washington and Pyongyang lead to a military clash.

In this scenario, lowering the bilateral tension is what is most urgent. Beyond that, it is imperative that China bring to bear all the pressure it can on North Korea. China has to think less about maintaining the regional status quo and more about its responsibility to curb the outbreak of a conflict that would be devastating for everyone.