Iran: 18 Months of US ‘Maximum Pressure’

Tehran is feeling the full force of U.S. policy, which reimposed sanctions against Iran in May 2018. As a result, they have resumed their nuclear activities.

What does the American administration want? More than 18 months after the official launch of the “maximum pressure” policy, diplomats and researchers from all countries are tearing their hair out: Is the White House, supported by its regional allies – notably Saudi Arabia – seeking regime change in Tehran, or the abandonment of all nuclear and missile activity and of all efforts toward regional destabilization in the Islamic Republic? If the aim remains unclear, the effects of this policy are also questionable.

Stranglehold

The process of gradually reimposing American sanctions, starting in May 2018, is stifling the Iranian economy, which will shrink by 9.5% in 2019 according to the IMF, after a contraction of 4.8% in 2018. The most painful is the continued embargo on petroleum products. It became an almost total ban in the spring when Washington withdrew the exceptions, which until then had been granted to eight major crude oil customers, India and China among them. Iran would now export fewer than 200 thousand barrels a day, compared with 2.5 million before sanctions were reimposed. This stranglehold affects the Iranian population, which is struggling to obtain certain medications and parts for medical equipment, for example, and even to get accounts with U.S. internet giants.

But it is on nuclear power itself that America’s “maximum pressure” has had the most dramatic impact. After having fully complied with the agreement that was reached with the major powers in Vienna in 2015, Iran began to contravene it at the start of the summer. They did this methodically, in 60-day phases. In doing so, Tehran wants to force the other states that are party to the agreement – particularly the Europeans – to honor their commitments and to know that Iran is benefiting from the economic effects that were promised in exchange for having its nuclear program put under supervision. However, those Europeans disappeared as soon as Washington brandished the threat of “extraterritorial” sanctions, so called because they also apply to third parties.

Infringement

The Islamic Republic has therefore resumed its nuclear activities. The last “reduction in commitments” concerns the Fordow site, underground facilities that had long been kept secret and were discovered in 2009, where Iran is suspected to have carried out research of a military nature. On Nov. 11, three European leaders and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini, were alarmed by this new infringement. They are “extremely concerned” and “urge Iran to reverse all measures inconsistent with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action”, adding that, “These efforts [to facilitate de-escalation] are however made increasingly difficult by Iran’s latest action.”

The final cause for concern at this stage is that the International Atomic Energy Agency, which supervises inspections, has revealed in a recent report that it has detected suspicious particles, possibly linked to nuclear activities at an undeclared site. As if the infringements which the Iranian authorities have planned and largely carried out aren’t making the situation sufficiently fraught with danger.