Suga’s Diplomatic Vision Becomes the Axis of the US-Japan Alliance

Putting Hope in the Suga Administration

The areas in which Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who gained popularity by promising to carry on Shinzo Abe’s diplomatic legacy, is going to face the most pressure are, unsurprisingly, foreign policy and national security. With the radicalization of tension between the U.S. and China, as well as the increasing uncertainty among the international community because of the coronavirus pandemic, the number of unresolved issues requiring urgent attention is increasing.

At his first press conference after becoming prime minister, Suga declared his intention to “expand policies that hinge on a functioning U.S.-Japan alliance.” In expressing its congratulations to the new prime minister, the White House responded by saying “the relationship between the United States and Japan has never been stronger, and President Trump looks forward to working with Prime Minister Suga to make it even stronger.”

Trust-building with the President of the United States

The U.S.-Japan alliance as a way to support Japan’s foreign diplomacy and national security will remain unchanged. The first challenge the Suga administration will face is the U.S. presidential election this November. Regardless of whether President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden wins the election, it will be crucial that Suga move quickly to reaffirm Japan’s role, as well as the significance of the alliance.

In the world of diplomacy, personal rapport among state leaders is becoming increasingly important. Former Prime Minister Abe and Trump were a prime example. For Suga and his still unknown diplomatic capabilities, the key to future diplomacy with the U.S. lies in his establishing a relationship of trust with the president of the United States as soon as possible — one close enough so that he can speak frankly and say what needs to be said.

The U.S. is poised to increase the cost of stationing U.S. troops in Japan by the end of the year. Regardless of the administration, Japan should be on the lookout for the U.S. inadvertently increasing pressure on allied nations.

The same Abe administration that persisted with its bold foreign and security policies also put off many problems of diplomacy with some of Japan’s neighboring countries. Thus, Suga was right in expressing his desire to “build a stable relationship with Japan’s neighbors.”

When it comes to foreign policy toward China, it will be crucial to take a strategic approach that keeps pace with the U.S.-Japan alliance. Japan harbors a lingering sense of mistrust regarding China’s response to the initial outbreaks of the coronavirus that occurred within the country. China further fanned the flames of distrust when it went over the heads of the Legislative Council of Hong Kong and enacted the Hong Kong national security law, which effectively made a sham of its “one country, two systems” policy.

Near the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa, there have been multiple incidents of Chinese vessels operating in Japan’s contiguous zone and invading territorial waters. Before becoming prime minister, Suga’s stance was one of caution when it came to security and the “anti-China encirclement.” Now, he will need to be firm in asserting Japan’s position, including that on issues relating to Hong Kong and the Uighurs.

Originally, President Xi Jinping was scheduled to visit Japan on official business in April, but his trip has been delayed due to COVID-19. Japan and China hold the second and third place as global economic powers. However, the lingering suspicions must first be dispelled before talks can progress in other areas. Looking ahead to the state of the world post-COVID, there will be many issues on which the two nations will need to cooperate.

Relations between Japan and South Korea have grown cold, and this is casting a shadow over the economy and national security. With the extension of the General Security of Military Information Agreement proving to be a triggering topic every year, the U.S.-Japan-Korea framework on which the security of East Asia lies is unreliable. Although there is a long way to go before progress is made regarding the issue of sex trafficking, the two countries must first begin by easing the air of distrust between them.

The prime minister cited North Korea’s kidnapping of Japanese citizens as an issue of utmost importance. However, waiting around for the perfect time to address this issue will not itself lead to progress. Instead, while backing the reopening of denuclearization negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea, Suga should concentrate his efforts on making headway on the abduction issue.

In the peace treaty negotiations with Russia, although the other nation is obstinate in its demands, the Japanese government must maintain the principle that those four northern islands are inherent Japanese territory and were occupied illegally, and remain steadfast in its negotiations.

Domestically, Suga faces the challenge of integrating the new missile defense tips given to him by Abe in conversation. While there is the expectation that possessing the capacity to attack an enemy base will strengthen deterrence, this brings with it many other issues, such as assessing deterrence effectiveness, as well as coordinating with the U.S. Suga should start by only addressing disputes that may lead to a shift in national security policy, and do so in a way that is easy for the public to digest.

Japan Takes the Lead on Free Trade

The idea of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” advocated by the previous administration is highly approved of by the U.S. and Europe. Amid rising threats surrounding Japan, working to expand the national security framework would be in the nation’s best interest.

Multilateral diplomacy is a stage on which Japan can shine. Frameworks like the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and the European Partnership Agreement are both accomplishments of Japan-led free trade, despite the rest of the world leaning toward protectionism.

Both the foreign minister and defense minister in Suga’s cabinet were kept on from the Abe administration for continuity. The prime minister said he will “push forward by utilizing each and every asset at his disposal,” and is currently focusing his efforts on advancing diplomacy while also consulting with Abe and his predecessors.

Although he is inheriting Abe’s diplomatic legacy, which deepened the cooperation between countries of similar values, with Japan and U.S. cooperation at the center, Suga must also show originality and individuality. The nation is hoping that he quickly reveals a diplomatic vision that will conceptualize security and peace in East Asia.