Born Yesterday

Published in El País
(Spain) on 12 September 2021
by Ana Fuentes (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Elizabeth Gardiner. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
For two decades, while Washington has squandered resources in its war on terror, China has expanded using both hands, as its propaganda says.

Twenty years after 9/11, voices in the United States such as that of James Dobbins, first diplomat in Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban in 2001, recognize that they have lost a generation in foreign policy. Their greatest opportunity cost has been not to see China coming, which has seen improvements in development, influence and dialogue across the world without having to jump through the West’s hoops. When the terrorists demolished the twin towers, Beijing had not even joined the World Trade Organization; it was tying off loose ends. For two decades, while Washington has squandered resources in its war on terror, China has expanded using both hands, as its propaganda says: the visible (the market) and the invisible (the government). At the same time that it was constructing infrastructures to connect its cities and develop the countryside, it was weaving a net to control the population via technology.

The United States was convinced that, as it grew rich, China would toe the line. Since Ronald Reagan, all presidents have maintained that, once it freed up its economy, Beijing would not only accept the import of foreign products, but also democratic values. They were talking into their own echo chambers. The Chinese Communist Party blames American arrogance for this view. It has been silently acquiring resources on five continents and in the Arctic, and buying strategic businesses whenever the law has allowed it. It can afford to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund without applying its prescriptions. And it has spread out in the Asia-Pacific region, taking advantage of the fact that Washington was focused on the Middle East.

We are entering a new era of international relationships; the most important thing to note is that it seems that the West was born yesterday. We already know that the Communist Party is not a monolith because many political currents are stirring within it. It is moving, but not in the direction that the U.S. and Brussels would like. There are those who believe that, to stay in power, it will increasingly become the puppet of liberal capitalism, but it is not clear. In any case, it presents itself as glue holding together the collective idea of China and is profoundly nationalistic. It wants to change international institutions to accommodate its values and interests.

Beijing’s self-importance is not as obvious as that of the United States, and thanks to that it has gained loyalty from a wide portion of the public: those who reject the liberal order, those who need investment and those who, like Germany, have their value chains fully established in the Asian country. It has happened at full speed, like when we look at the countryside through the window of a moving train. Suddenly, Beijing is betting like never before on the fight against climate change. It has exceeded all economic predictions of Western governments and organizations ahead of time. But this does not mean a more open or, of course, more democratic system.


Caer del guindo

Durante dos décadas, mientras Washington ha dilapidado recursos en su Guerra contra el Terror, China se ha expandido usando las dos manos, como dice su propaganda

Veinte años después del 11-S, voces en Estados Unidos como la de James Dobbins, primer diplomático en Afganistán tras la caída de los talibanes en 2001, reconocen que han perdido una generación en política exterior. Su mayor coste de oportunidad ha sido no ver venir a China, que ha ganado en desarrollo, peso e interlocución en el mundo sin tener que pasar por el aro occidental. Cuando los terroristas derribaron las Torres Gemelas, Pekín ni siquiera había entrado en la Organización Mundial del Comercio, estaba rematando los últimos flecos. Durante dos décadas, mientras Washington ha dilapidado recursos en su “guerra contra el terror”, China se ha expandido usando las dos manos, como dice su propaganda: la visible (el mercado) y la invisible (el Gobierno). A la vez que construía infraestructuras para conectar sus ciudades y desarrollar el campo, iba tejiendo una red para controlar a la población mediante la tecnología.

Estados Unidos estaba convencido de que, a medida que fuera haciéndose rica, China entraría en vereda. Desde Reagan, todos los presidentes habían sostenido que, al liberalizar su economía, Pekín no solo aceptaría importar productos del exterior, sino también los valores democráticos. Le hablaban a sus propias cámaras de eco. El Partido Comunista chino achaca esta visión a la arrogancia americana. Sin ruido, ha ido haciéndose con recursos en los cinco continentes y en el Ártico, y comprando empresas estratégicas siempre que la ley se lo ha permitido. Puede permitirse negociar con el FMI sin aplicar sus recetas. Y se ha desplegado en Asia-Pacífico aprovechando que Washington estaba centrado en Oriente Próximo.

Estrenamos una época nueva en las relaciones internacionales y lo más importante es que Occidente ha caído del guindo. Ya sabemos que el Partido Comunista no es un monolito, porque dentro de él se revuelven muchas corrientes políticas. Sí se mueve, aunque no lo haga en la dirección que desean EE UU y Bruselas. Hay quien cree que para mantenerse en el poder irá haciéndose cada vez más de la cuerda del capitalismo liberal, pero no está claro. En todo caso, se presenta como el aglutinador de la idea colectiva de China y es profundamente nacionalista. Quiere cambiar las instituciones internacionales para acomodarlas a sus valores e intereses. La suficiencia de Pekín no es tan obvia como la americana, y gracias a eso ha fidelizado a un público muy amplio: los que rechazan el orden liberal, los que necesitan inversión y los que, como Alemania, tienen sus cadenas de valor totalmente asentadas en el país asiático. Ha ocurrido a toda velocidad, como cuando miramos el paisaje por la ventanilla de un tren en marcha. De repente, Pekín está apostando como nunca por la lucha contra el cambio climático. Ha superado todas las previsiones económicas de los Gobiernos y organismos occidentales antes de tiempo. Pero esto no implica un sistema más abierto ni, por supuesto, más democrático.
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