Recently, there has been a noticeable escalation in the state of U.S.-Russian relations. This is the second episode since last spring when many expected the neoconservative-backed globalist Joe Biden to give the go-ahead to Kyiv for an offensive in the Donbass. But then everything was limited by the to the ridiculous laughable arrival of Volodymyr Zelenskiy from the anti-terrorist operation zone and convincing maneuvers by the Russian armed forces on Russian territory. This turned out to be enough.
Then Washington tried to disrupt the launch of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but again failed as European partners simply rejected the program.
Then Biden focused on the withdrawal of American forces and their accomplices from Afghanistan and the creation of the AUKUS alliance against China, as well as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which included the United States, Japan and India. And once again, everyone is aligned against China.
With the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and the beginning of a withdrawal of troops from Syria (and withdrawal of troops from Iraq), Biden signaled he was taking a pacifist approach and then paid tribute to neocons and hawks with AUKUS and the Quad. However, the withdrawal of troops is a fact, and the coalitions created are so far only a simple opportunity — a swing and a miss.
Apparently, this caused serious discontent among the neocons, and they demanded that the president, who was sinking deeper into dementia, take decisive steps.
This was reflected in the escalation of relations — this time not with China, but with Russia — that we are witnessing today. The tension has simultaneously increased along the entire perimeter around Russia, where there are three zones of clearly visible and growing conflict.
First, Belarus and the crisis with migrants on the Polish border. Here Alexander Lukashenko’s behavior is quite rational. He calmly accepts migrants into his country migrants who are rushing to the European Union, ignoring Poland, which in turn, after the elections in Minsk and mass liberal protests, refused to build any constructive relationship with Lukashenko. The tension on the border and the gathering of Polish troops there creates a hotbed of tension between allies Russia and Belarus and the United States, the EU and NATO. But Lukashenko has had nothing to do with it; he just responds to NATO’s rudeness and the attempt at a regime change operation undertaken by the globalists.
At the same time, the movement of Ukrainian armed forces has begun in the Donbass, with Kyiv completely erasing the Minsk agreements in essence. The process began when settlements located on Donetsk People’s Republic territory were seized. The situation here is evidenced in the speeches of some Ukrainian politicians who call on their American partners to intervene, to support the restoration of Kyiv’s control over the Donbass and, if necessary, to join in a direct military confrontation with Russia. This confrontation will take place inevitably, since today it is obvious to everyone that if Kyiv starts a full-fledged military operation, Moscow will not abandon its citizens from the DPR and Luhansk People’s Republic who have been receiving Russian passports in large numbers for some time. Once again the situation is escalating, and Washington has made it clear that this time, it is determined and ready to support Kyiv.
And finally, the NATO military exercises in the Black Sea and the call of the U.S. 6th Fleet warships at the port of Batumi are intended to demonstrate that the U.S. is well aware of the urgency and is ready to support Ukraine in any possible confrontation with Russia. Washington has made it clear that the Black Sea basin will be used in this case to attack Russia — or at least to contain it.
To support the overall U.S. strategy, former President Mikheil Saakashvili — who deals professionally with geopolitical and political provocations in the interests of globalists, primarily George Soros and his networks — was illegally brought to Georgia recently. The neutral ruling force in Georgia, the “Georgian Dream,” is not ready to join in a new adventure; and that required the arrest of Saakashvili. But the minefield has been laid.
And so, for the second time during Biden’s presidency, relations between Russia and the United States have reached a critical point. This may explain the direct talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and CIA Director William Burns, who recently arrived in Moscow. Such an asymmetric dialogue is conducted only in extreme conditions.
In other words, we are on the verge of a war, and it could begin in one of three zones of growing escalation: on the Belarusian-Polish border, in the Donbass, or in the Black Sea. Or maybe in all three regions at the same time.
It would be quite easy to take the first shot. The legal status of the Russian Crimea or the independent Donbass, as well as the recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, are diametrically opposed in the eyes of Russia and the West. What Moscow would perceive as an act of direct aggression (and these are Putin’s “red lines”) may well look like a “legitimate operation to restore control over national territories” or an action to “support a peace dictator” (in the case of Lukashenko and the shadowy Belarusian opposition represented by Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya) for the United States and its allies and satellites.
War is more likely than ever. However, there are a number of arguments that provide hope that this time things will return to normal, and the status quo will be restored.
The strongest argument that war is unlikely is that Biden has no mandate to declare one. His approval rating is falling, and everyone is unhappy with him — not only Donald Trump supporters and Republicans, but also his own party and voting base. Biden can’t do anything. He drops things, forgets words, greets a ghost and falls asleep wherever he can. To start a war with Putin’s nuclear capable, and militarily and psychologically adept Russia — albeit partly by proxy — requires ironclad legitimacy. War has to be justified, as it exposes mankind to the brink of destruction. Nuclear weapons are nuclear weapons, and here the parity is still absolute.
No one in the world doubts Putin’s determination to stand up for the freedom and independence of Russia to the end. And just imagine: In such a situation, the grandfatherly president, almost completely out of his mind, orders, “Forward, attack! With me….” And who is following behind him? Soros, LGBTQ groups, gay parades, artificial intelligence, a system of global network censorship and tracking, Mark Zuckerberg having lost his mind and believing that he is already living in a science fiction film … and all this to engage in a fight with Putin?
Next time. This is not just the opinion of Biden’s opponents, ordinary Americans, but also of most of his supporters, with the possible exception of neocons, but they are not entirely maniacal or suicidal. They study geopolitics and (hopefully) are well aware of what a true balance of power is. This means that this perimeter escalation is most likely nothing more than a second bluff.
If so, then the limit on Russia’s intimidation will be exhausted after the situation returns to normal. Swinging twice and never hitting means only one thing: The aggressor is not at all capable of landing a punch — because it is not an aggressor, but a scarecrow.
There seems to be no new outcome, as everything remains as it was: the armed forces of Ukraine will return to their barracks, migrants will make their way through the forests to Germany and U.S. warships will deploy to their usual locations in the Mediterranean. But everything is not the same. Nowadays you can simply wipe your feet on Biden like a floor mat. He is an irresponsible, pathetic old moron. He may even die of shame. Kamala Harris, for whom the globalists had so many hopes, may also disappear, since everyone ignored her after she turned out to be a fool.
But the situation is still escalating so sharply that one cannot be completely certain that nothing will happen. Therefore, the likelihood of war must be taken seriously. In fact, the Russian leadership — Putin, Sergey Shoigu, Sergey Lavrov — is demonstrating exactly this. Based on our symmetrical exercises, the sharp reaction to the provocations of the U.S. Armed Forces near our borders and the aggressive gestures of Kyiv, Russia is ready for war. It is clear that everything will be done to avoid it, but if those same red lines are crossed, Russia will accept the situation with courage and dignity.
And in this, there is one very interesting difference: Putin has a mandate to fight in defense of Russia. Patriotic sentiment in Russian society is extremely high, and after the first shot (God forbid), they will shoot to the moon. Putin has full legitimacy in domestic politics; we hope that the technological potential of the Russian army will be enough. (Truly no one knows how everything really is concerning weapons and new military technology, and if they do, then it is a state secret. Therefore, to guess whether we are ready for a full-fledged war or not is meaningless — it seems that they are ready.)
In short, Russia has a better starting position in this escalation than the United States. Moreover, in the event of a direct conflict, Moscow has a chance to improve its geopolitical position qualitatively and in one stroke — and in all three directions.
In a critical situation, unification with Belarus will occur rapidly, Novorossia (from Odessa to Kharkov) will finally be liberated, there will then be two Ukraines, one of which will pay for everything — from Maidan to punitive raids, and in Georgia, God forbid, the national neutral regime will be strengthened making it possible to develop positive relations.
Yes, price matters. But all great things are paid for in blood.
And what does the U.S. get? It cannot kill Russians. Putin’s position is absolutely firm. No one in their right mind can count on the direct occupation of Russia — let alone on an incapacitated proxy in the form of Ukraine.
In a nutshell, there will be no war. It won’t happen again. For Moscow, this is of course already a victory. But not a real victory.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.