Red Lines

The impasse between Russia and the West over Ukraine drags on in a dangerous way.

For 2 hours and 5 minutes Tuesday (Dec. 7), the presidents who control more than 90% of the planet’s nuclear arms discussed the impasse over Ukraine.

As would be expected, there was no visible progress, just a reiteration on the part of Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin of the so-called red lines perceived by U.S. and Russian leaders.

Almost eight years ago, Putin redrew the European map, reclaiming the gift from the Soviet Union’s Nikita Khrushchev to Ukraine, where he had made his career.

The annexation of Crimea, approved by the majority of ethnic Russians who live there, was a response to the movement that overturned the pro-Kremlin government in Kyiv in 2014. Not recognized by the international community, it is a fait accompli from a political perspective.

The situation in Eastern Ukraine was already more complex, due to the greater ethnic heterogeneity and industrial weight of the Donbass region. A civil war took place, a shaky cease fire was achieved, and in practice, there is an autonomous, separatist enclave in place.

Obviously, Kyiv isn’t satisfied. It doesn’t accept the terms mediated by the Russians and the West, which guarantee special rights to the rebels.

From time to time, the situation recurs and heats up. Some 14,000 people have already died in the conflict. This year, Putin mobilized troops close to the borders, generating alarm bells all over Eastern Europe. He wanted to avoid military action by the Ukrainians against the separatists, and succeeded in the end. But the crises continues.

Russia does not accept a Ukraine integrated with the West because, historically, its neighbor and Belarus form areas of strategic depth, lengthening invasion routes and separating adversarial troops. This is Putin’s red line. Biden’s red line would be a military invasion the American president claims is imminent since Russia has once again concentrated forces in the area.

Putin probably is just playing on fear to try to obtain a favorable accommodation, given that the risks of an escalation involving NATO are very great. However, Putin has taken them on in Crimea before, and there is no guarantee he won’t try that again.

Biden threatened new economic sanctions and other measures such as reinforcing NATO’s military forces in case of an invasion, something which happened after 2014. On the other hand, Putin sought guarantees that NATO will not expand, in vain. From impasse to impasse, the situation becomes more dangerous.