European Doves and American Hawks

Washington and Brussels have differing views on an imminent war.

The threat of a Russian invasion in Ukraine has revitalized the transatlantic link between the United States and the EU after the winter of the Trump administration, and has led NATO to “brain death,” according to the words of French President Emmanuel Macron, in an interview with The Economist in 2019. If Vladimir Putin finally decides to enter Ukraine, no one should doubt that Washington and Brussels will act as a single front, working in a single direction. But it is on this particular and key question of whether or not we are up against an imminent incursion of Russian troops in Ukraine that there are huge discrepancies between the two member states.

Since last week, U.S. President Joe Biden has been warning us almost daily about the Russian intervention in Ukraine. The Pentagon has put 8,500 soldiers on “maximum alert” to increase the distribution of NATO troops in Europe, if necessary. The American generals state that they see no sign of deescalation on behalf of the Kremlin and justify these strong measures. The U.S. has also removed non-essential personnel from the Kyiv Embassy, an initiative that was supported by the United Kingdom and Australia.

In European capitals, especially Paris and Berlin, these measures caused a certain “perplexity.” High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell urged “do not dramatize.” Russia has multiplied the signs of an intervention in Ukraine since November 2021. Around one-third of the Russian army’s tactical groups have been moved to the front line in recent weeks — a deployment far superior to those that the Kremlin had us accustomed to. This week, Russia has launched huge maneuvers in the south of the country and in Crimea, annexed illegally in 2014. Washington fears that denying Putin a right to veto NATO membership, which would break with the “open doors” policy, serves as pretext for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The White House believes that pretext could be produced by mid-February; in December it claimed that it would be at the end of January.

In the old continent, however, some diplomats consider the number of troops — around 120,000 troops on the border — insufficient to start an offensive on that scale. They also warn that this option would be too expensive for Putin due to the deep pro-European sentiment that dominates among Ukrainians. The skeptics argue that the master of the Kremlin gives no advance warning about his operations. Like a good ex-KGB agent, he works in the shadows. They also remember that he prefers hybrid and limited attacks, in which it is easier to control the damage.

Macron, who advocates for a European dialogue with Russia outside of (or parallel to) the U.S., will hold a telephone conversation with Putin, this Friday, Jan. 28. Together with Berlin he has revived the Normandy quartet. The objective is to achieve a deescalation, which requires both dialogue and dissuasion.