5 Countries Testing Biden from All Sides

Published in UDN
(Taiwan) on 26 February 2022
by Huang Kuei-po (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jennifer Sampson. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
The Biden administration has been in power for a year and a month. Once regarded as an old hand at diplomacy, Joe Biden has sunk into a diplomatic quagmire. His strategy of “compete, confront and cooperate” with the Chinese Communist Party has been disappointing. But in the Russia and Ukraine conflict, U.S. support of Ukrainian defense has stalled as U.S. and NATO troops sit unmoving around the Ukrainian border. Furthermore, these troops are inadequate to really suppress the combined might of Russian and Belarusian forces and pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.

Last year, on Dec. 7, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan expressed that the U.S. would do everything possible through diplomacy and deterrence to ensure that Taiwan was not forcefully reunified with China, and that Ukraine was not invaded by Russia. Now, however, regarding Ukraine, a country with which the U.S. has official diplomatic relations, U.S. diplomacy with and deterrence toward the Putin administration has failed. Many people are watching to determine whether U.S. diplomacy and deterrence would work should China follow suit and invade Taiwan.

In addition to Russia, Belarus and mainland China, the U.S. must also contend with challenges such as a nuclear deal with Iran and active missile tests by North Korea. Since the first letter of these countries happens to spell “brick,” they can be called the five BRICK countries.

Actually, in a congressional hearing last January, Secretary of State Antony Blinken already indicated Russia, Iran and North Korea as major threats and China as a major challenge.

That nuclear power Belarus has joined in against Ukraine reveals that its security agreement with Russia, formerly loosened, has returned to normal. Moreover, Belarus is retaliating for when Biden snubbed President Alexander Lukashenko in favor of inviting opposition party candidates to his inauguration. To prevent an attack by NATO, Belarus announced in mid-February that if it was threatened, it would hold a referendum at the end of the month to amend the constitution and legalize the use of nuclear weapons, which would go into effect immediately.

Thus, the U.S. is facing thorny issues from the five BRICKs.

Because of a string of actions — from last year’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, the gradual end of combat missions and the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, to the current position of only helping Ukraine defend itself without U.S. military involvement — America’s commitment to its allies is often questioned by critics and opposition. And because of the competition or challenges from the five BRICKs, the Biden administration is facing challenges from all sides.

The five BRICKs have forced the Biden administration to split its focus in international strategy and diplomacy and even spend energy and resources that could have been spent on creating multilateral alliances and restraining China and Russia. According to a Gallup poll conducted in the first half of February, only 36% of respondents approved of Biden’s Russia policies, while 55% disapproved. Even in broader diplomatic affairs, Biden only received a 40% approval rating, while 56% of respondents disapproved.

At the same time, Biden is facing a string of emerging domestic problems, such as inflation, supply chain issues and setbacks in countering the COVID-19 pandemic. While his Build Back Better plan was described as a great achievement, the Republican Party, led by Donald Trump, has repeatedly attacked the Biden administration. Biden’s public support has been declining.

The Democratic Party has already been projected to be weakened in the midterm elections this November. If the five BRICKs continue to test the Biden administration, the outlook for the Democrats will, unfortunately, be even less optimistic.


「硬磚五方」出考題 拜登腹背受敵

美國拜登政府上任一年又一個月,原本被視為外交老手的拜登卻深陷外交泥淖,不僅跟中共的「競爭、對抗、合作」表現不如預期,甚至在俄羅斯、烏克蘭衝突中,從原本力挺烏克蘭抗俄,變成與北約在烏克蘭周邊按兵不動,而且這些兵力尚不足壓制俄羅斯、白俄羅斯及烏東親俄武裝勢力聯軍。

去年十二月七日,美國國安顧問蘇利文表示將竭盡一切,由外交和嚇阻兩途徑確保台灣不會被中共以武力統一,以及確保烏克蘭不會遭俄國入侵。然而,在與美國有正式外交關係的烏克蘭這方面,美國對普亭政府的外交和嚇阻已經失效。不少人正在觀察,萬一中共當局針對台灣依樣畫葫蘆,美國的外交和嚇阻是否能起效果。

在前述俄羅斯(Russia)、白俄羅斯(Belarus)、中國大陸(China, P.R.)之外,美國也面臨了伊朗(Iran)核協議存續,以及北韓(Korea, D.P.R.)積極試射導彈等挑戰。這五方各自的英文字首正好可拼成「BRICK」(磚),或稱「硬磚五方(國)」。

其實美國國務卿布林肯在去年一月國會任命聽證上,已點出俄羅斯、伊朗、北韓、中國大陸是未來重大威脅(俄、伊、北韓)或挑戰(中國大陸)。

這次擁有核武能力的白俄羅斯加入攻烏的一方,不僅再次顯示這幾年原本鬆動的與俄羅斯安全合作,又恢復正常,而且也報了拜登政府不邀盧卡申科總統參加拜登的就職典禮,卻邀反對派候選人參加的一箭之仇。此外,白俄羅斯為預防北約進攻,二月中旬宣布,若受外力威脅,在本月底舉行修憲公投以使核武部署合法化後,將立即著手進行。

所以,美國目前遭遇到的「硬磚五方」個個棘手。

在去年自阿富汗撤軍、且逐步「結束戰鬥任務」並自伊拉克展開撤軍、在當前俄烏危機只協助烏克蘭自我防衛但不軍事介入等連串作為後,美國對於盟邦的承諾便經常受到評論者及反美勢力的質疑,遑論「硬磚五方」針對美國而來的抗衡或挑戰作為,更讓拜登政府腹背受敵。

「硬磚五方」使得拜登政府在國際戰略、外交上至少必須分神應對,以至於耗損不少原本可用於建構國際多邊結盟、制約中國大陸與俄羅斯的精力與資源。另根據蓋洛普公司二月上半所做民調,拜登對俄政策只受到卅六%的認可,有五十五%不認可;就算是廣泛的外交事務,拜登也只有四十%認可,五十六%不認可。

同時,拜登內政上問題也一一浮現,國內通貨膨脹、供應鏈不順、新冠疫情防治受挫、「重建美好未來法案」被描繪為好大喜功,再加上共和黨由川普帶頭對拜登政府輪番猛攻,其民意支持度更是節節下降。

十一月美國期中選舉(國會與州長),民主黨已被看衰了,如果「硬磚五方」持續給拜登政府「出考題」,民主黨的選情恐將更不樂觀。

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