The party in power in the U.S. could lose dozens of seats in November and will have difficulty retaining its current status in the Senate.
Barring any surprises, the midterm elections in November are going to be disastrous for the Democrats and, consequently, for their chances in the presidential election of 2024.
All the signs that usually indicate problems for the party in power, from the economic situation to public approval of the president’s performance, are negative for the Democrats, who barely have a majority in the House of Representatives and are tied with the Republicans, 50-50, in the Senate.
But according to the results of a Gallup poll, Democrats could lose dozens of seats in November and are unlikely to retain their current standing in the Senate, where their majority is due to the fact that the presidency of the body, by law, belongs to the nation’s vice president, in this case, Kamala Harris.
The consequences of this change of power, if it occurs, could be enormous on every level, from immigration and energy to the country’s international alliances.
“The party of the president typically loses U.S. House seats in midterm elections — an average of 23 since 1974. However, 2022 is not shaping up to be an average year,” the poll indicates, which suggests a negative outlook for the Democrats.
The main marker could be President Joe Biden’s approval rating, now at 41% in Gallup polls, tied with former President Donald Trump before the 2018 midterm elections and lower than any other president except George W. Bush in 2006.
Only 18% of Americans approve of the work that Congress is doing, the lowest figure for an intermediate year and three points below its rating both in 2018, when the Republicans lost control of Congress, and in 2010, when the Democrats were defeated.
Only 16% of Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country, with more than half of Americans convinced that the economy is on a negative course.
But with inflation and gasoline prices that have not been seen since the 1970s and are now reflected in higher food costs and problems in the stock market, the indicators are what Gallup qualifies as a “tidal wave” and some media define as a political tsunami.
It is true that some of the Republicans’ positions work in favor of the Democrats, from their positions on abortion to their absolute refusal to consider limits on the possession of weapons in a country shaken by massacres and divided by racism.
But the midterm elections are traditionally considered a referendum on the president’s performance, and correctly or not, Biden’s image is that of a well-intentioned man who is nonetheless weak on domestic issues and in international politics.
In this case, the defeat of the Democrats could involve overturns of up to 180 degrees.