Nuclear Threats: Do We Believe Biden or the CIA?

Joe Biden’s warning that the world is at risk of an “Armageddon” [Biden’s ‘Armageddon’ warning wasn’t based on new intelligence, US says | Joe Biden | The Guardian] sends a message that the danger of Russia deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine is real and should not be underestimated.

However, intelligence sources, who requested anonymity, quickly told the media that there is no real evidence that Vladimir Putin has imminent plans for a nuclear strike. Should we believe these reassuring assessments of the U.S. Secret Service?

It is true that they correctly predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the Central Intelligence Agency mistakenly thought that Putin would quickly seize the capital, Kyiv, in a matter of days and occupy the rest of the country.

The CIA, a Series of Ineptitudes

Here is a non-exhaustive list of the agency’s most serious mistakes:

• On Oct. 13, 1950, the CIA assured President Harry Truman that China would not send troops to Korea. Six days later, one million Chinese soldiers crossed the Korean border.

• On Sept. 19, 1962, the CIA told President John F. Kennedy that the deployment of nuclear missiles in Cuba was not the Soviet intention. On Oct. 14, U-2 spy planes photographed Soviet missiles there.

• In August 1978, the CIA told President Jimmy Carter that there were no pre-revolutionary conditions in Iran. Six months later, the pro-American shah’s regime was overthrown.

• In 1979, Soviet forces, which had been focused on the border of Afghanistan for weeks, invaded that country to the consternation of the CIA, which had known nothing and seen nothing.

• In 1989, the CIA was unable to predict the collapse of the Soviet Union. During the Cold War, the agency’s primary mission was to gather intelligence on the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

• On July 31, 1990, the CIA rejected the imminent Iraqi invasion of Kuwait as unfounded information. Two days later, that country was occupied by the armies of Saddam Hussein.

• The CIA was unable to detect the preparations for the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks organized by Saudi jihadists (Osama Bin Laden) that it had financed via Pakistan to fight against the Soviets in Afghanistan.

Urgent Negotiations Needed!

Retired U.S. Chief of Staff Mike Mullen should be taken seriously when he talks about nuclear war. According to him, Putin is “a cornered animal.” [Retired Admiral Brands Putin ‘A Cornered Animal,’ Calls For Russia-Ukraine Talks | HuffPost UK World News (huffingtonpost.co.uk] He encourages the United States to quickly bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table.

Moscow said it is open to discussing a Turkish proposal for new talks. Putin will meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Kazakhstan this week. Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul in March failed. Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said some NATO countries wanted the war to continue in order to weaken Russia.