The midterm elections will not only have an impact on the second half of Joe Biden’s term, but also on the 2024 presidential elections, the future of the country and the war in Ukraine.
With the war in Ukraine, the abrupt resignation of Liz Truss in the United Kingdom and the fears regarding energy among the main concerns in the minds of Europeans, the midterms tend to take a back seat. Yet, the midterm elections are crucial to the future of the United States. Here’s why.
The question is not just about Democrats and Republicans fighting sometimes fierce battles in swing states, such as Pennsylvania, to remain or become the majority in Washington.
It would actually be logical for the Republicans to win a majority in Congress: Historically, the party in power in the White House gets sanctioned during the midterms. In 2010, under Barack Obama, Democrats lost 63 seats in the House of Representatives and six in the Senate. And two years after the election of Donald Trump, the Republicans had to give up 41 seats in the lower house.
The question lies at another level: What will be the credentials of the Republicans who will enter the Capitol or rise to the position of governor? This amounts to bringing up Trump’s hold on his party, which remains powerful despite his multiple legal troubles and his obstinacy in disputing the results of the 2020 presidential election.
Since 2021, followers of conspiracy movements, who spread the most insane theories and brandish the threat of a new civil war, have entered Congress. The profile of some candidates, those MAGA (Make America Great Again) Republicans that Biden calls “a threat to democracy,” is indeed worrying. Individuals who condone the attack on the Capitol could well get elected.
The real issue at stake in these elections, therefore, is the impact they will have on the 2024 presidential election. Let’s take Doug Mastriano as an example. This Trump Republican who is aiming for the governorship in Pennsylvania has already made one thing clear: If he were elected, he could appoint Republican electors even if the majority of the state voted Democratic in 2024. In other words, he openly threatens to disregard the will of the people and violate the integrity of the electoral process.
These midterms, therefore, are much more than a referendum on Biden, whose remaining term is bound to become complicated if the Republicans gain momentum in Congress. They are also a referendum on Trump, and above all a test for democracy. Its results will have significant repercussions: they will shape the future of America and its relationship to the world, namely the issue of its support for Ukraine as a victim of Russia’s imperialism.
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