The Bibi Problem

President Joe Biden assures that a cease-fire in the Middle East is close. To his voters, too. Because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is increasingly becoming a burden for him.

People like to tell anecdotes about politicians who have known each other for a long time. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have known each other for more than 40 years. A lot of material for anecdotes. In Washington, D.C., there is one that is told again and again, which Biden himself once told publicly. In 2014 at a speech before the Jewish Federations of North America, Biden said that he and Netanyahu are “still buddies” even if they have a somewhat complicated relationship. Biden, then vice president, said this about a photo that he once signed for Netanyahu with the words: “Bibi I don’t agree with a damn thing you say but I love you.”

Ten years later, the love between the two is at an end. The president would never put it that way publicly. The United States is Israel’s most important ally. Biden made that abundantly clear after the terror attack by Hamas on Oct. 7. He traveled to Israel, he called Netanyahu almost weekly, and without the United States, there cannot be a solution to this war. On The Daily Show, comedian Jon Stewart recently put it his own way: “The United States has always been Israel’s emergency contact.” But now it is time for some moral tough love. That means more toughness toward Israel. More protection for the Palestinian civilian population.

Biden Needs a Deal between Israel and Hamas

The tone is getting rougher by Biden’s standards. Not as much as many leftists and Muslim citizens in the country are demanding, but palpably. At the beginning of February, Biden said Israel’s response in the Gaza Strip was “over the top.” Vice President Kamala Harris recently said at the Munich Security Conference: “Israel must do better to protect innocent civilians.” At the same time, Biden is assuring Netanyahu that he has people working around the clock to free the remaining hostages abducted by Hamas. It is the argument the United States recently used last week at the U.N. Security Council to once again block a cease-fire resolution.

On Monday, Biden fostered hopes of an impending cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. When asked when a corresponding agreement could begin, the president said: “I hope by the end of the weekend.” Biden said they are close. However, there is still no agreement. The president has a dilemma: He needs Netanyahu to reach a deal between Israel and Hamas. And the people in the Middle East need this deal more than anyone else to end the suffering. But Biden also needs it in order to somehow keep the issue out of his presidential campaign.

Biden won the Democratic primary election in Michigan as expected. However, a not insignificant portion of voters voted “uncommitted,” which means they did not choose any candidate on the ballot. The largest community of Arab Americans lives in that state, with more than 310,000 inhabitants from the Middle East or North Africa. Biden needs this group for his campaign, just like the younger leftist voters who are extremely critical of Biden’s Middle East policy. According to polls, even the Black electorate that is rather inclined toward Biden sympathizes more with Palestinians than white and Hispanic citizens do. Many of them no longer believe in Biden’s Israel policy. In New York, Washington and other cities, signs hang in windows that demand a cease-fire and a free Gaza. For weeks, calls of “Genocide Joe” could be heard at demonstrations against U.S. government policy.

Bibi, the ‘Asshole’

So far, this has not led Biden to an actual political change. The 81-year-old’s loyalty is not only based on the fundamental stance of the United States toward Israel, but also on Biden’s own biography. Since Oct. 7, Biden has repeatedly spoken about how his father’s stories of the Holocaust affected him. Biden had been in Israel seven times as a senator, three times as vice president under Barack Obama and now twice as president, and has met every prime minister since Golda Meir. Biden’s stance on the Middle East is not fickle.

However, his complicated relationship with Netanyahu — whom he once left waiting at a dinner as vice president and whom he has characterized as “counterproductive” and “extreme right” during his first presidential campaign — and the prime minister’s unwillingness to listen to the U.S. government are obviously enraging Biden.

According to an NBC report, Biden said in private about Netanyahu that he’s “giving him hell,” and he is impossible to deal with. According to this, the exhausting friend has become an “asshole.” Biden has supposedly said this about Netanyahu multiple times. Reports like this are increasing, with CNN, Politico and others reporting on this as well — it’s no coincidence in political Washington that this is becoming public. The White House’s official account is one thing, semi-subtle messages are another.

A recent AP poll revealed that half the respondents are of the opinion that Israel’s response to the terror attack has gone too far. And the even more decisive number for Biden: 53% of Democratic voters no longer agree with the way Biden is dealing with the conflict.

Biden Has Not Used His Greatest Leverage Yet

Biden’s Bibi problem is getting bigger. Even if the announced cease-fire should come to fruition this weekend, the president will have to take further action. Netanyahu announced that this pause would only postpone his planned offensive in Rafah. There won’t be a long-term solution in the region with Netanyahu; Biden knows this. However, Biden the campaigner needs a short and mid-term calm.

He has not used his greatest leverage yet: arms shipments. According to the Congressional Research Service, the United States has provided Israel with $158 billion in aid from 1948 to March 2023. The majority of that is military aid. Since Oct. 7, a further $14.3 billion has already been provided, and more funds will be negotiated in Congress. No longer supporting Israel in this way would be a scarcely imaginable about-face for Biden right now and, furthermore, one that would cause problems for him with other groups of voters. Donald Trump’s only message to Israel is concisely populist: None of this would happen with him.

However, Biden will not be able to play for time and shimmy from one deal to the next much longer. Perhaps in addition to his regular phone calls, the president should sign a new photo for Netanyahu. “Bibi, I don’t agree with a damn thing you say, I don’t love you anymore — and that will have consequences.”