Trump in Trouble? Biden Should Pay Special Attention to This
Published in Dziennik
(Poland) on 10 April 2024
by Tomasz Mincer (link to original)
(Poland) on 10 April 2024
by Tomasz Mincer (link to original)
Translated from
by Rebecca Feuka.
Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
There are signs that young people are renouncing Donald Trump — and a generational gap is being created. But contrary to appearances, this is also a problem for Joe Biden and the Democrats, says political scientist and Americanist Dr. Karol Szulc in an interview with Dziennik.
Trump Loses Support, Biden Gains It
After an initial flop, Joe Biden is making gains in his election campaign in the United States. Polls are quite optimistic for the U.S. president.
Now in April, as in March, the incumbent president is still ahead of Donald Trump in a public opinion poll measuring support for the two rivals in the November presidential race.
In a March Reuters/Ipsos poll, Biden was beating Donald Trump by one percentage point (39% to 38%). According to another March poll by Civiqs/Daily Kos, Trump was losing to Biden by the same percentage, although at 45% to 44% in favor of the Democrat. Both polls surveyed registered voters.
The April Ipsos poll, commissioned by Reuters, shows that the Republican candidate is still trailing slightly behind the Democratic candidate, although the difference falls within the usual limits of statistical error. Biden can therefore expect 41% support from voters, and Trump, 37%.
Why Donald Trump Is Losing
Is this a trend, and why is Biden winning over public opinion? We asked Dr. Karol Szulc, a political scientist and American studies scholar from the University of Wrocław. As he points out, "It’s difficult to talk about trends at this stage. It should also be taken into account that the American division of Ipsos does not have the best ratings when it comes to the validity of their predictions, so I approach these findings with a bit of skepticism.”
“Let's also remember that these surveys are about popular support for politicians,” he continues. “And the support that a candidate in the U.S. presidential election enjoys throughout the country is not that important, because what matters is winning in key states, the swing states.”
Szulc points out that we do not have recent data on the contest in these key states. Currently, the two candidates are relatively tied. “The minor trend that we’re seeing actually previously favored Trump, and now Biden,” he adds. However, as the political scientist notes, the general assessment of Biden's performance is still quite negative. Nevertheless, ratings "have recently shifted slightly in the president's favor; negative ratings have begun to fall and positive ones have risen."
Szulc says there may be many reasons for Biden's slight rise and Trump's simultaneous decline. “Lawsuits against Donald Trump may play an important role. The former president had to pay $175 million in bail in his civil case,”* he says. “Another aspect: abortion. Trump is key here, but the majority of Americans, apart from the core Republican electorate, are in favor of women having the right to make decisions about their own bodies.”
Biden Should Pay Special Attention to This
Szulc points to a phenomenon that should worry Trump. “There are signs that young people are renouncing the Republican, and a generational gap is being created. But these young people are unlikely to support Biden, as there is concern that they will not necessarily go to the polls in November. And this is already a problem for Democrats,” he says.
According to Szulc, polarization in the U.S. is so far advanced that Biden cannot count on Republican votes. “He can merely try to attract undecided and independent voters. And mobilize Democratic voters,” the political scientist says.
In his interview with Dziennik, Szulc emphasizes another factor that may be influencing the shift in the polls. “I suspect Americans are finally starting to see that Republican Trump isn’t better at handling the economy than Democrat Biden. And that the condition of the American economy is improving during Biden's term. People are living better, unemployment is low, inflation is falling, and it isn’t bothering us as much in our day-to-day lives. So there’s some stabilization going on,” he explains.
Biden Criticizes Netanyahu. What Do Voters Say?
When asked what impact the change in the Democratic administration's policy toward Israel has on voters' preferences, Szulc affirms that "it definitely has a positive impact on Biden voters."
“Democrats are pro-Israel, but they have limits. American Jews are generally pro-Democratic. They vote for politicians whose amicability toward Israel is conditional. Currently, regarding Benjamin Netanyahu, an authoritarian politician whom some American Jews call an outright fascist, they like Biden's assertive and critical approach,” Szulc says.
*Editor's Note: Donald Trump posted a $175 million bond in a civil judgment against him pending appeal.
Trump Loses Support, Biden Gains It
After an initial flop, Joe Biden is making gains in his election campaign in the United States. Polls are quite optimistic for the U.S. president.
Now in April, as in March, the incumbent president is still ahead of Donald Trump in a public opinion poll measuring support for the two rivals in the November presidential race.
In a March Reuters/Ipsos poll, Biden was beating Donald Trump by one percentage point (39% to 38%). According to another March poll by Civiqs/Daily Kos, Trump was losing to Biden by the same percentage, although at 45% to 44% in favor of the Democrat. Both polls surveyed registered voters.
The April Ipsos poll, commissioned by Reuters, shows that the Republican candidate is still trailing slightly behind the Democratic candidate, although the difference falls within the usual limits of statistical error. Biden can therefore expect 41% support from voters, and Trump, 37%.
Why Donald Trump Is Losing
Is this a trend, and why is Biden winning over public opinion? We asked Dr. Karol Szulc, a political scientist and American studies scholar from the University of Wrocław. As he points out, "It’s difficult to talk about trends at this stage. It should also be taken into account that the American division of Ipsos does not have the best ratings when it comes to the validity of their predictions, so I approach these findings with a bit of skepticism.”
“Let's also remember that these surveys are about popular support for politicians,” he continues. “And the support that a candidate in the U.S. presidential election enjoys throughout the country is not that important, because what matters is winning in key states, the swing states.”
Szulc points out that we do not have recent data on the contest in these key states. Currently, the two candidates are relatively tied. “The minor trend that we’re seeing actually previously favored Trump, and now Biden,” he adds. However, as the political scientist notes, the general assessment of Biden's performance is still quite negative. Nevertheless, ratings "have recently shifted slightly in the president's favor; negative ratings have begun to fall and positive ones have risen."
Szulc says there may be many reasons for Biden's slight rise and Trump's simultaneous decline. “Lawsuits against Donald Trump may play an important role. The former president had to pay $175 million in bail in his civil case,”* he says. “Another aspect: abortion. Trump is key here, but the majority of Americans, apart from the core Republican electorate, are in favor of women having the right to make decisions about their own bodies.”
Biden Should Pay Special Attention to This
Szulc points to a phenomenon that should worry Trump. “There are signs that young people are renouncing the Republican, and a generational gap is being created. But these young people are unlikely to support Biden, as there is concern that they will not necessarily go to the polls in November. And this is already a problem for Democrats,” he says.
According to Szulc, polarization in the U.S. is so far advanced that Biden cannot count on Republican votes. “He can merely try to attract undecided and independent voters. And mobilize Democratic voters,” the political scientist says.
In his interview with Dziennik, Szulc emphasizes another factor that may be influencing the shift in the polls. “I suspect Americans are finally starting to see that Republican Trump isn’t better at handling the economy than Democrat Biden. And that the condition of the American economy is improving during Biden's term. People are living better, unemployment is low, inflation is falling, and it isn’t bothering us as much in our day-to-day lives. So there’s some stabilization going on,” he explains.
Biden Criticizes Netanyahu. What Do Voters Say?
When asked what impact the change in the Democratic administration's policy toward Israel has on voters' preferences, Szulc affirms that "it definitely has a positive impact on Biden voters."
“Democrats are pro-Israel, but they have limits. American Jews are generally pro-Democratic. They vote for politicians whose amicability toward Israel is conditional. Currently, regarding Benjamin Netanyahu, an authoritarian politician whom some American Jews call an outright fascist, they like Biden's assertive and critical approach,” Szulc says.
*Editor's Note: Donald Trump posted a $175 million bond in a civil judgment against him pending appeal.
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