Kamala Harris Benefits from the Shared Expectation of a Woman President*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

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Political scientist Vladimir Vasiliev notes that the debates between Trump and Harris have evened the odds for both candidates.

Polls after the debate show no significant shift in their ratings, suggesting that neither candidate’s campaign is likely to see major changes anytime soon.

There’s a concept called the trajectory of an election campaign, and it usually only shifts due to dramatic events. Either Donald Trump would have come across as particularly unconvincing to the public, or Kamala Harris would have risen above expectations, showcasing herself in a new light. Neither of these scenarios played out, leaving the chances of both candidates evenly matched.

One important indicator, often seen as even more telling than polls, are the betting odds. Following the debate, they stand at a tie — 49% for each candidate. It seems likely that this situation will persist for the foreseeable future, despite the liberal media’s attempt to elevate Harris over Trump.

We’ll also need to see how regular Americans react on social media. I suspect many will note that Trump came off as quite responsible. Sure, he sidestepped some questions, but he didn’t fall into sexist or racist traps and kept the debate from turning personal.

As for Harris, she seems to have distanced herself from the Biden administration with her populism, demagoguery and a focus on declarations and promises. Her message of “Let’s start fresh and build a brighter America and an economy of opportunities” could be seen as lacking substance.

However, she benefits from a strong expectation in the U.S. for a woman president. This anticipation can act as a self-fulfilling prophecy. It didn’t work out with Hillary Clinton, but will it happen for Kamala? We’ll find out soon.