10 Years of Fighting Terrorism, 10 Years of U.S. Dejection

Ten years and counting after 9/11, the war in Afghanistan, motivated by the desire to search for and capture bin Laden and his partners, has become the longest war ever in U.S. history. The Iraq war, initiated on the mistaken belief that Hussein had nuclear weapons, is now the most controversial U.S. war. In addition, there is Pakistan, a peculiar battlefield where control is not with the Pentagon but with the CIA, which uses a variety of intelligence-gathering methods and remote methods to conduct attacks against terrorists. In reality, the global war on terror also spreads into other countries like Yemen and Somalia.

In 10 years of war, the victories that have occurred have come at high costs. The U.S. has eradicated three top al-Qaida leaders, including bin Laden, killed approximately 20,000 insurgents and militants and terrorist groups have yet to launch another significant attack on U.S. soil. However, Afghanistan and Iraq have left 6,238 U.S. soldiers dead, 45,600 wounded and 1,300 soldiers from coalition forces dead. Using various methods of calculation, war expenditure is estimated to be between $1.2 trillion and $4 trillion; this is without even accounting for political, military and financial costs in the next decade.

Prolonged warfare greatly impacts the global financial market and U.S. national power. Ten years ago, a barrel of crude oil cost $28, and now it costs $115. The price of an ounce of gold has also risen from $215 to $1,800. The U.S. is currently facing the deepest economic and financial recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s; unemployment rate is as high as 9 percent. First, the federal government’s projected deficit is $1.5 trillion, and the national debt close to $15 trillion. The most militarily powerful country in the world has become the largest debtor. To make matters worse, the largest potential competitor of the U.S., China, took strategic advantage of this golden decade to become the largest exporter in the world and the largest creditor of the U.S. Even the efficiency and rate of its military modernization have exceeded expectations. China is posing a growing threat to the U.S.’s regional interests as well as global hegemony.

The war on terror has changed the strategies and methods of the U.S. Army; it is even going to influence future warfare. In the face of new forms of enemies such as transnational terrorist organizations and non-state actors like religious extremists, U.S. Army Special Operations Forces diligently practice ‘small-scale warfare,’ which consists of anti-terrorism, anti-rioting, asymmetrical warfare and non-traditional warfare. The U.S. Army actively adjusts the structure of military forces, uses unmanned vehicles and develops new tactics.

In May of this year, a special team led by Navy SEALs successfully killed bin Laden, grabbing the world’s attention. In reality, ever since the start of the war on terror, the U.S. has gradually expanded Special Operations. Within 10 years, Special Operations troops grew from 45,600 to 61,000. The numbers of unmanned aerial and ground vehicles deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq have surged. What was once tens of unmanned aerial vehicles have become a fleet of more than 7,000, and among them are those being controlled by the U.S. Army’s Nevada base over 1,200 miles away. Currently, there are as many as 1,200 robots deployed in combat. Long-distance remote warfare, executions without trial and rumors of incidents of wrongly-targeted civilians have ignited a debate over whether war is moral or just.

The effectiveness of intelligence work is mixed. The U.S. created the position of the Director of National Intelligence in 2004 to coordinate 16 intelligence departments. This year, the overall intelligence budget reached $8 billion. There are 1,271 governmental units and 1,931 civilian companies involved in anti-terrorism, national security and intelligence work. They are spread across more than 10,000 locations across the U.S. and employ many as 854,000 people. Intelligence service, of course, deserves credit for hunting bin Laden and springing surprise attacks on terrorist activities. The U.S. has also proclaimed that the country is more internally secure than in the past. However, the root cause of the Iraq war was an intelligence fiasco, and not only that, the Iraq war is criticized as the U.S.’s biggest strategic disaster in history. Recent attempted terrorist attacks such as the shoe bomber, the underwear bomber and the bomb at Times Square were all prevented due to the vigilance of street vendors or travelers, not preempted by intelligence agencies. Numerous mistakes have dealt hard blows against the various intelligence units who possess huge human and financial resources.

　

Figures from recently published public opinion polls further expose the reality of anti-terrorism and, simultaneously, reveal possible future trends: 74 percent of the U.S. public calls for military withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, and as many as 24 House representatives think that the government should put forth a timetable for withdrawal. Only 4 percent of interviewees feel that the president and Congress should focus attention on either Afghanistan or Iraq. Up to 70 percent think that the economy, employment, the national deficit and government spending are issues that should be focused on. On the other side of the world, an opinion poll conducted in Pakistan shows that 69 percent of Pakistanis view the U.S. as an enemy.

The writer is a professor at New York State University and taught Strategy Research at National Chengchi University.