Obama Has Not Unlearned Campaigning

As president, Obama may convince less and less Americans, but he is like no other at campaigning, writes Volkskrant correspondent Arie Elshout.

Barack Obama was in shape while delivering the State of the Union. Self-confident, combatant and optimistic, the American president did not avoid political provocation. “The State of the Union is getting stronger,” the country is getting stronger, he said very audaciously. His Republican opponents listened with grinding teeth, applauding as a courtesy. Around them, the Democrats operated as an oiled ovation machine, as if they had trained their upper legs for weeks in the private Congressional gym.

The spectacle reminded the Republicans of the fact that Obama is a formidable election opponent. John McCain, his rival in 2008, sat there saggily as if he was reliving his then-defeat.

As president, Obama may convince less and less Americans (his popularity has sat under 50 percent for a while now), but he has not unlearned the art of campaigning. This was the most important reason why the Republicans were looking so dazed during Obama’s yearly speech on the condition of the country.

They realize that America is like the weather in March. The winter is almost over, spring is on the way, but everyone knows that it can still be nastily cold and wet for a long time. Obama says: Trust me, the 2008 crisis is behind us, the worst harm has been suffered. “In the past 22 months, companies have created more than three million jobs. Last year, they created the most jobs since 2005.”

Executioner

The Republicans say: We are not heading the right way. Last Tuesday, during “the real State of the Union”, election candidate Mitt Romney indicated the high number of unemployed and home evictions. Mitch Daniels, the Republican governor for the state of Indiana who gave the official Republican response to the speech of the president, added that Obama is not the designated man to solve these problems. “The president is not the cause of the economic and budget crisis that persists to date. But he was elected on the promise to do something about this and he cannot possibly deny that it has become worse in the past three years.”

Who is right? That question cannot be answered: The condition of America is exactly at the point where the glass is both half empty and half full. No one knows whether it will hover long at that point or whether the tender economic recovery will persevere. What is certain is that the economy will be the executioner during the presidential elections in November. Therefore, for now, Obama and the Republicans cannot do anything different other than try to put the spotlight on their vision as convincingly as possible with the voters. And that is why the Republicans were so visibly scared; few can tell a story so well as Obama.

He praised himself for the saving of the car industry, while Romney thought that unprofitable companies better file for bankruptcy. A million jobs were saved. “General Motors is back as the world’s largest car manufacturer,” Obama said triumphantly. He turned against the tax advantages for the rich. “You can call this a class war. But to ask a billionaire to pay at least as much as his secretary? Most Americans call that common sense,” Obama said with a reference to billionaire Warren Buffett’s secretary, who sat in the honor lodge and who, according to her boss, pays a higher tax rate than he does.

The Republicans counter that there are more than 13 million unemployed; that under Obama, the national debt has increased from $10 trillion to $15 trillion; and that he should not blame that on obstruction by Congress, because until January 2011, he had a comfortable Democratic majority in House and Senate.

It is the Republicans’ word against Obama’s word. It does not matter who is right, but who will be proven right. In politics, perception is the reality.