Enormous Fight for Latino Vote

One of the biggest challenges that awaits Democratic candidate Barack Obama is winning the Hispanic vote, because, during the primary elections, he was not very good with Latinos and he will not make it to the White House without their massive support. It will not be easy. Though Latinos have historically voted for the Democrats and they did in even greater numbers during the recent primary elections of the party (in part due to increasing anti-immigration rhetoric from the Republicans), a large fraction of the Latino vote was for Hillary Clinton.

Senator Clinton defeated Obama among Latino voters 73% to 27% in New York, 69% to 30% in California, 68% to 32% in Texas, 70% to 30% in New Jersey, and 61% to 35% in Florida. Obama defeated Clinton among Hispanics in Illinois, his state.

Obama is particularly weak among foreign-born Hispanics, who represent almost half of the 13 million Latinos registered to vote.

This presents an enormous challenge for Obama. To win in November, he doesn’t just need to win the Hispanic vote in swing states (like Florida, New Mexico, and Colorado), which will be the key to the election, but he also needs to do it by a larger margin than usual. “In the elections this year the Latino vote will be more important than ever,” affirms Democratic pollster Sergio Bendixen.

“It is possible that the national election will be determined in Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, where the Hispanic vote will be decisive in determining the winner of those states.”

According to Bendixen, Obama needs to win the Hispanic vote by a margin greater than 55% in Florida and more than 65% in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. And if Republican candidate John McCain gives the Democrats a fight in New Jersey, California and Pennsylvania, Obama’s margin of victory in those states will have to be even greater.

Will he achieve it? One poll conducted last week by the Carville-Greenberg group shows Obama defeating McCain among Hispanics at the national level by 60% to 34%. Another poll done recently by Gallup reveals that nationally, 62% of Hispanic voters intend to vote for Obama versus 29% for McCain.

Many Democratic strategists cite these polls as good signs for Obama. A new study by the New Democrat Network (NDN) shows that the number of Hispanic voters in the primary elections this year is triple that of the 2004 primaries and that the number of Hispanics who will likely vote Democratic has increased by 66% in the last four years.

Stronger

“Recent national polls indicate that Obama’s candidacy is very strong among Latinos, especially considering the weakness he showed with this group during the primaries,” says NDN president Simon Rosenberg.

The Republicans say that McCain just needs to gain the 38 to 40% of the Hispanic vote that Bush won in the last two elections, and that won’t be too much to achieve.

“This race has barely begun, and we still have five months to remind Hispanics that John McCain has always been on our side and has risked himself politically for our community, while Obama’s ties to the Hispanic community are scarce or null,” says Ana Navarro, codirector of the McCain’s Counsel of Hispanic Advisors. “Recent polls are positive for McCain and a good point on which to construct a victory.”

My opinion: Obama will attempt to gain the Hispanic vote and he will center his discourse on the questions that most affect Latinos, like the economy, universal healthcare, and the war in Iraq.

It is likely that McCain will avoid discussing this agenda and that he will concentrate, on the other hand, on a negative campaign against Obama; he will emphasize Obama’s lack of experience and portray him as weak on national security in an increasingly dangerous world. Obama has no choice but to put all of his determination into winning the Hispanic vote by an overwhelming margin. In a recent interview, the Democratic candidate, who has never visited Latin America, told me that he plans to travel to Mexico before the November elections. That’s great. But he’ll have to do much more than that.