Poll: Obama Shaken by Romney?

The CBS/New York Times poll placed Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in a tie, with both getting 46 percent of the intended votes. These head-to-head numbers are hard to digest for the 44th president. Neck and neck, the two men are nip and tuck. Obama is learning the hard way that he and Romney are fighting in the same weight class.

This situation is quite difficult for the 44th president, who needs a break in the current economic situation, which is less dramatic than in 2008. However, for the middle class, who still face problems on a daily basis, this difference is imperceptible. As president since 2008, Obama has to set the tempo, get the upper hand and build on the difference between himself and Romney. He has seven months to convince voters.

Life with Obama is better, but still very tough. How can we pay our mortgages? According to the poll, 40 percent say they need to revise their aspirations for their children’s education. In addition, 30 percent say they are hindered by the restrictions generated by high-priced gas. This uncertainty about the future scares voters and motivates them to consider Romney.

The Case for Mitt Romney

Romney won the primary and is therefore a legitimate candidate, even if 61 percent are not enthusiastic about him at all. The Republican Party and its leaders, including John McCain and Jeb Bush, among others, are now supporting Romney. It hardly comes as a surprise that they would reunify to fight Obama.

Romney came out of the primary weakened (victim of his image as a billionaire with no real convictions), with barely a third of voters having a positive opinion of him. However, swing voters represent over a third of the voters, which leaves him some room to maneuver. Although his image as an entrepreneur, “who knows how to get things done,” was rather negative at the beginning of the primary because of the way he ran Bain Capital, it now seems to be working in his favor. The fiscal issue and the possibility of paying less tax have turned Romney into a good champion, as he has managed to stabilize his own tax rate around 15 percent. For now, this skill is also working in his favor.

The Case for Barack Obama

The people have regained some optimism thanks to Obama; 33 percent see the economy more positively, compared to 14 percent in October. With a 48 percent approval rate, Obama has to convince Americans that a second term would allow him to finish the economic and social job he started. How can he win over the 50 percent of voters who, according to the poll, think that things will worsen in the future? Careful! We are in the same situation as in 1992 when Bill Clinton defeated the first President Bush.

It is time for Obama to take the lead in the campaign and impose the same themes that succeeded during his first term: Economic improvement, job creation (even if fragile) and health care reform. He should not get involved in futile controversies, which wasted precious time during the first week of his face-off with Romney. Indeed, their debate had been clouded by polemics on the life of Ann Romney as an idle housewife, as well as problems with the Romneys’ dog. The same is for the Buffett Amendment, which is now sinking into limbo after the 44th president made an important commitment to make it pass in the Senate.

This is especially true because conviction is Obama’s main strength. His ability to reach women is far superior to Romney’s (49 percent for Obama compared to 43 percent for Romney), as is his ability to sway everyone on economic and social issues. However, Obama has to make a choice whether his campaign will be a referendum on his first term as president or a campaign against Romney. This poll could motivate him to capitalize on what he has already done.