Blip for Obama

Now assured of his nomination, with six months to the presidential election, Mitt Romney, the Republican opponent of Barack Obama, is close behind him in the polls and appears to the majority of voters as best positioned to improve the economy.

“Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” This was the question that candidate Ronald Reagan asked Americans during the presidential campaign of 1980. It was in opposition to Democrat Jimmy Carter, then president of the United States. Unable to offer a satisfactory answer to voters despite his relative popularity, Carter finally had to make way for the old actor, whose battle cry was the economy.

Barack Obama is in a similar position with six months to an election that could be more complex than expected, as he struggles to reassure Americans about their future. “You’re headed for a one-term presidency,” he was told by Steve Jobs at a dinner a few weeks before Jobs’ death. The former head of Apple, the leader of market capitalization in the United States, criticized the president for not sufficiently explaining the reasons why he was unable to fulfill promises made in 2008 or generate the same enthusiasm.

Seemingly, many observers are beginning to share this point of view. In her talk show on MSNBC on April 29, Melissa Harris-Perry echoed Reagan’s question and highlighted the difficulties that the incumbent president faces. It was especially interesting as her guests were rather close to Obama and all have recognized his economic weakness, particularly in the field of employment.

In the first quarter of this year, the economic growth (+2.2 percent) slowed sharply from the last quarter of 2011 (+3 percent), suggesting few exciting prospects for the coming months in a difficult international environment. Americans are aware of this, as evident in a survey conducted on April 18 by The New York Times and CBS News. Neck and neck, each with 46 percent of the vote, Obama and Romney, his most likely Republican rival, differ in one important respect in the eyes of the respondents: their ability to improve the economy. But those interviewed agreed on this point more to the credit of a Republican rather than a Democratic president.

Swing States

The latter, who officially enters into the campaign these days, finds himself in an unenviable position. Unlike in 2008, the victory will be played out exclusively with regards to the domestic economic situation. The focus today is on the swing states, those states where neither party dominates the debate and which can make or break a president. 14 in number, including Virginia and Wisconsin, they are worse off than the rest of the country in terms of job creation. In the month of March, 6,500 positions have been created, compared to 100,600 the previous month, which is likely to swing the votes in favor of the Republican candidate.

“We need a president who has a profile of a businessman, and for that Romney is impressive. He has a project that will restore the country’s economic power,” explained an independent voter in Minnesota, one of the swing states, in The New York Times on April 18.*

The Spell Is Broken

Obama must also appeal to young voters, who played an important role in his election in 2008. With 50 percent of under-30-year-olds unemployed or underemployed, the spell will perhaps have a harder time working. A recent study by the Institute of Politics at Harvard University shows that only 20 percent of those aged 18 to 30 believe that “the country is headed in the right direction.” The enthusiasm of 2008 has fallen. 66 percent of young people voted for Obama four years ago, but only 43 percent want his reelection. It is not, therefore, surprising that the emerging actions multiply out in their favor. In late April, Obama began to put pressure on Congress, dominated by his Republican opponents, to ensure that the interest rate onf student loans does not double in July. He made this announcement on the famous show, “Late Night with Jimmy Fallon,” during an improvised jazz duet with the host.

The cool side of the president is likely to attract young people, but it may also turn them against him. Romney claims, “Four years ago, America elected the biggest celebrity in the word, and Americans got one cool president. After four years of a celebrity president, is your life any better?” This was the message delivered in a video clip denouncing Obama’s tendency to associate with celebrities, again evidenced at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner on April 28.

That is another question that Barack Obama will have to answer by November 6; otherwise he might have to give up his place. But do not overstate this yet. “His position remains favorable,” says political scientist Peter Brown from Quinnipiac University (Connecticut).* “He continues to lead in voting intentions, including the swing states,” Brown stated, before adding cautiously, “But there still remains six months before the deadline.”

*Editor’s note: The original quote, accurately translated, could not be verified.