Back Off, Please!

If American President-Elect Barack Obama keeps his vows to send 30,000 troops to Afghanistan to pursue the so-called “war on terror”, he might get stuck in a swamp, probably deeper and more dangerous than the Iraqi one. The current situation in Afghanistan indicates that such a war will grow harder and more expensive, without any victory in sight, even with the strategy General David Petraeus says was a success in Iraq, when it reduced violence there. This strategy relies on forming “Awakening councils” (like those of Iraq) of the Afghani tribes’ fighters (mostly, Al Bashton) and charge them with fighting the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

However, General Petraeus should take into account that what won the day in Iraq, as he claims, will not be preferable in Afghanistan. That is because the Afghanis will not accept a plan meant to wreck their country. They also have misgivings about the militias, who can turn unruly, rise against the government and ignite the wick of a destructive civil war.

In the case of the strategy being a failure, sending more American troops will be in vain, because their deployment will not be on the Pakistani borders or the Taliban-controlled areas. Rather, they will station troops in the cities and villages, which are opposed to a foreign presence. This will, beyond a shadow of a doubt, encourage turmoil and fear. This will expose these troops to the danger of retaliation. Something else to be considered is the fact that the Taliban’s militia now dominates more than 72 percent of the Afghani lands, main roads and most of the marine activities.

Then the other alternative for Obama, instead of using the tribes’ militia, is the Afghani army and police forces, which, so far, did not raise the thumbs up. Besides, the countries, allies of war against terror (70,000 forces of 40 countries) showed their dissatisfaction from getting more involved in a war their peoples doubt its credibility and effectiveness and shall keep their troops to solely defend their homelands.

On the other hand, Pakistan, a strong regional ally, is witnessing a new impasse after massing 20,000 of its troops on the Indian borders in readiness for a war with it. More and above, Pakistan is liable to collapse after becoming the most menacing spot of the world, encompassing terroristic organizations that have also contacts with the Pakistani intelligence and military corpses. Seemingly, it shall be hard to support America’s combating terror, at least for the time being.

That is why Obama’s involvement in Afghanistan while its country is suffering from a bitter financial crisis and a tired army can be nothing else but suicide. So, why do not you, Obama, reconsider your plans of escalation and study a way to withdraw all your soldiers from here and there to spare your country gaining more internal and external enemies?