Why Mitt Romney’s Mormonism Will Matter in US Election

For the first time in their history, Americans will be able to send a Mormon to the White House. This aspect of Mitt Romney’s candidacy hasn’t failed to arouse the press’s curiosity. The “Mormon factor” sheds light on the complexity and the implications of religious issues in an election where religion plays too large of a role in economic and moral questions.

We wondered whether the Republican candidate’s faith wouldn’t rebuff the necessary conservative evangelicals, who don’t consider Mormonism a true Christian religion but rather a sect. Conservative Protestants, as well as Catholics, are nevertheless ready to recognize a number of shared values with Mormons: the importance of family, economic liberalism, minimal interference from the federal government, a strong international presence. In other words, conservative evangelicals prefer to vote reluctantly for Romney instead of abstaining and indirectly causing the reelection of Obama, who they consider to be the antichrist.

George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection, attributed to the mobilization of “values voters,” those sensitive to moral issues, has generated a particular interest in the privileged relationship between Republicans and that part of the American population. It simultaneously revealed the Democrats’ inability to speak to these voters.

Four years later, Barack Obama’s victory was made possible by a cultural shift: He asked for a reconciliation between Democrats and evangelicals. We thus (re)discovered a religious, progressive left, the heirs of the civil rights movements of the 1960s, themselves descended from social Christianity (“Social Gospel”) and shocked by the misery of American industry at the end of the 19th century.

In fact, one of the key strengths of the Obama campaign was its unprecedented mobilization of young voters, and notably white, traditionally Republican, evangelical youth. In their eyes, environmental issues or development assistance in Africa took precedence over the prejudices of the preceding generation against abortion and gay marriage. Four years later, the enthusiasm for Barack Obama has waned, and it seems that the cultural tides that were predicted from evangelical voters in favor of Democrats aren’t there: 80 percent of white evangelicals ages 18-25 are planning to vote for Romney, primarily out of hostility toward Obama.

However, the existence of an “evangelical left” shows that evangelicals haven’t formed a solid block, especially when it comes to Catholics, who make up a quarter of voters. The dual political identity of Catholics, on social justice ideals, solidarity and social conservatism, is embodied in the choice of the two vice presidents, Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Paul Ryan, both Irish Catholics.

More than ever, the victory will come through mobilization, notably in the swing states like Florida, Ohio and Virginia, but also in those where Catholics are particularly numerous: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. In the last three, the ever-growing Hispanic population is becoming a critical electoral parameter. Predominantly Catholic, at least some are wooed by Protestants (22 percent), particularly Pentecostalism.

Even if their economic situation and the immigration status of themselves and their children renders them largely receptive to Democratic ideas, their moral conservatism, especially from the Protestants, may push them to vote Republican. Crisis issues and economic questions are particularly salient this year. However, moral questions remain central (abortion, contraception, gay marriage). It is therefore useless to separate these topics: In June, a group of nuns traveled the country by bus to denounce the ultraliberal budget proposed by co-religious Republican Paul Ryan, arguing that “the budget is not a moral document.”

The Republicans tried to play up the “Mormon factor” to please certain large Orthodox Jewish donors and a Jewish electorate that largely sides with the Democrats. As a persecuted minority who traveled across a desert to reach the Promised Land of Utah in the 19th century, Mormons readily identify with Jews and are strongly pro-Israel. Jewish voters are relatively few (only 2-3 percent of the total). However, when polls are increasingly tight, what’s important is not to reverse the trend but to capture the several thousand votes that could make the difference in the swing states, and to hope to reap national repercussions from local and focused success.