Energy Independence Can Reduce the Risks in Sino-American Contest

American geopolitics academic George Modelski presented the theory of “Long Cycles in World Politics” in 1987, suggesting that every 100 years or so, a war for world leadership takes place.

At the moment, China and the United States are both ahead of the rest of the world in terms of energy consumption, gross domestic product and influence. Therefore some critics view China as the United States’ main challenger.

China is currently adopting the strategy of “peaceful emergence,” hoping to rely on its own power to solve its economic, energy and environmental problems. With the breakthrough in shale gas extraction technology and the commercialization of liquefied coal gas technology, China hopes to follow the United States’ lead and become fully independent in energy consumption. This will provide material support for China’s “peaceful emergence” and also lower the possibility of Sino-American energy conflict, defying the “fate” of confrontation between these two nations.

China Should “Share the Same Ride” as the United States

Modelski divides world leadership into four stages: Firstly, the “world war” stage in which a new world leader emerges. It is followed by the “unequivocal world leadership” stage in which the leader establishes a new global order. The third stage is the “delegitimization” stage where the legitimacy of the leader is questioned but it remains powerful. Lastly, in the “decentralization” stage, the leader’s power dwindles and different emerging powers appear, forcing the existing leader to rely on war to maintain its legitimacy.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, China immediately became the biggest challenger to the United States. In 1996, professor of international politics Dr. Shi Yi Wen from Renmin University of China published an essay titled “The Centennial Order of International Politics and Its Insights to China,” which attracted wide attention and heated debate. He followed Modelski’s view that most challenges in these last 500 years have ended in vain. New world leaders normally are those who cooperated with the previous hegemonic nation, while the hegemon gradually faced major setbacks. Hence Shi suggests that China should adopt the policy of “sharing the same ride” with the United States: Cooperating instead of becoming the leader of the Third World, or continuing an isolationist policy, hiding her light under a bush.

However, the ability to “share the same ride” does not depend on China. Even though China and the United States cooperate on many fronts, when conflicts actually occur it is impossible for the United States to abandon its long-time ally, Japan. Conversely, Japan keeps hanging on to the United States, knowing that sharing the same ride with the United States is the best option it has. For this reason, Wen’s idea of “peaceful emergence” is still the mainstream point of view at the moment. Its central idea is that development in China should not and cannot depend on other countries; it should take matters into its own hands. Wen also pointed out that China should rely on the domestic market and improvements in technology to solve energy and environmental issues. This type of theory is in essence an extension of isolationism in order to minimize conflicts with other countries. Yet in reality, China still faces an increasing energy demand that can only be met by imports.

Energy Independence Is Not a Far-Fetched Dream

In the era of globalization, using imported energy for developing the local economy is the norm, yet inevitably creates competition among powerful nations. Realism, the mainstream theory in international relations, dictates that despite all the ideologies of emerging nations, these nations will still bring changes to international politics to satisfy their domestic needs (such as requiring energy to develop their economies). In the last decade, Chinese reliance on imported oil increased steadily. In 1990, 2.92 million tons of crude oil were imported and the degree of dependence on foreign oil was -20.5 percent; whereas in 2010, imports of crude oil increased to 2.4 billion tons and the degree of dependence on foreign oil reached a new height of 54.8 percent. Although, China has rich coal resources: In 2009 it became a net importer of coal.

In terms of natural gas, in 2011, the production of natural gas in China reached an historic height of 101.9 billion cubic meters. Yet at the same time, its degree of dependence on foreign natural gas also reached a new height of 24 percent. Some experts estimate that by 2020, China might need to import 200 billion cubic meters of natural gas, reaching a reliance of 50 percent. Naturally, this huge import of energy will have a huge impact on the current international political situation.

Last April, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) export license in the last 40 years, marking a milestone in the successful development in shale gas. The exporting corporation, Cheniere Energy, announced that beginning in 2015 they will produce 200 tons of American-produced LNG. We may be able to say that, since last year, energy independence in the United States has become a reality.

Many analysts maintain the view that the United States’ decreasing interference in Middle Eastern affairs is closely related to its energy independence. It is reducing its imports of energy and its substantial naval forces can block sea transport routes efficiently, which are both factors that sharpen the need for China to become energy independent too.

Royal Dutch Shell estimated that China owns 25.1 trillion cubic meters of extractable shale gas reserves, ranking first in the world. On Dec. 25, 2012, the China National Petroleum Corporation announced that they have reached a breakthrough in key shale gas technologies, reaching the same standard as similar foreign products. Also announced in November 2012 was the news that Petrochina Southwest Oil & Gasfield Company had already produced and sold 11.253 million cubic meters of shale gas. Shenhua group also announced in September the opening of the first coal-to-liquid (CTL) gas station, signifying that CTL will operate in a commercial setting and reflecting that energy independence in China is no longer a far-fetched dream.

Minimize Conflicts and Avoid Wars

In truth, reasons for international conflicts vary. For example, well-known political theorist Samuel Phillips Huntington defines the Cold War conflicts as “clashes of ideologies” whereas post-Cold War conflicts are “clashes of civilizations.” International energy politics suggest that with oil, “10 percent is about economics and 90 percent is about politics.” Offensive realism scholars, such as professor of political science Dr. John J. Mearsheimer at University of Chicago, argue that survival is the primary motivation of all states in the international system and propose to preempt the development of China so as to avoid falling into a passive role in the future. However, going back to the issue of the outbreak of wars and conflicts, they are still tightly related to energy. Given that both China and the United States have rich shale gas reserves, when the cost of locally extracted energy is significantly lower than war, it will greatly reduce the potential cause of any conflict between the two nations.

The “long-cycle theory” is based on the history of great geographical discovery, when leaders and challengers in the past both fought for the same kind of need, such as colonies, markets, resources, energy or influence. If China reaches energy independence it will solve the demand for energy for its own economic development, and then a new situation will emerge: For the first time in 500 years, both the leader and its challenger will not have to expand their own living space but they will have to worry about the obstruction of energy transport.

Whether energy independence can prevent wars from happening or not is a question that only history can answer. At the moment, China remains at the industrializing and sub-urbanizing stage. The country has a huge energy demand that makes a complete halt of energy imports impossible. In addition, because of technological reasons and other objective conditions, China still has a long way to go until they reach complete energy independence. But China’s energy development provides a convincing argument for the prospect of “peaceful emergence.”