The figures are clear, and cold. Words, whether well-intentioned or telling half-truths or lies, are no match for them. Yesterday’s article in Prensa Libre, on the deportations of Guatemalans from the U.S., revealed some depressing numbers. In the first 90 days of 2014, there was a 40 percent rise in the number of Guatemalans whose first experience of air travel was in one of the planes used by the U.S. government to repatriate those who have risked their lives and health, on foot or on cargo trains, at the mercy of traffickers’ cruelties, in pursuit of the so-called “American dream.”
In other words, the figures can be summed up as follows: 13,724 Guatemalans were deported during these three months, which works out to 152 per day, brought back to the country on 117 flights — four every three days. If deportations continue at this rate, the total number for 2014 will be 55,480, 12 percent higher than the 2013 total of 50,221. Guatemalan Chancellor Fernando Carrera is right to describe the government’s attitude as “very passive” because both the current and previous Guatemalan administrations could have used their relationship with Washington to insist that Guatemalans be given the type of protection provided by the U.S. to citizens of other countries in this part of Latin America.
According to official diplomatic data, remittances with a total value of up to $5.105 billion per year are sent to Guatemala by emigrants. This works out at an average of $14 million per day, equivalent to 112 million quetzals. There is little doubt that a reduction of 55,000 emigrants per year is already having, and will continue to have, negative effects on the Guatemalan economy. Fewer jobs will be available; ultimately, this will mean that more Guatemalan men and women will be forced to leave their families and set out on an adventure which, if they even manage to cross the border, will leave them at risk of being classed as criminals.
It is difficult to calculate the average value per emigrant of remittances to Guatemala. An approximate figure, obtained by dividing the total value by the approximate number of emigrants, 1.2 million, gives a figure of $354 (2,836 quetzals) per month. This means that the expected expulsion of 55,480 emigrants from the U.S. during 2014 will result in the loss of $20 million (160 million quetzals) to the Guatemalan economy. The 3,861 who have been deported so far will have had an impact on a similar number of Guatemalan households, and resulted in losses of $1.4 million — almost 11 million quetzals. This demonstrates a sad reality: The painful business of “exporting” people is a major contributor to the Guatemalan economy.
It is easy to identify motives for the increasing strictness of U.S. deportation policy. On the one hand, it is in the electoral interests of the Republican opposition — who had no hesitation in completely closing down the government a few months ago — to leave President Obama, who has been attacked for the health care reform known as “Obamacare” as well as for his policy on deportations, in as difficult a predicament as possible. This is an election year, and the Republicans want to win back the White House at any cost, even if this involves inhumane strategies and the virtual annihilation of party moderates. This makes the job of the Guatemalan chancellery extremely difficult, because the situation of undocumented Guatemalans is so painful. Diplomatic and political pressure should be a moral obligation.
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