Imperial Strength

The U.S. economy’s vigorous growth, its transformation into an exporter of fossil fuels and the prospect of better inter-American relations all suggest that U.S. influence is growing in the world, especially in Central America and the Caribbean, beginning in 2015.

First, the U.S. economy reached a growth rate of 5 percent in the last trimester of 2014, which indicates healthy growth. It is likely that this high growth rate will be maintained during the coming two years and that the growing demand for employment will generate significant increases in salaries during 2015, in contrast to previous years. This economic success for the U.S. will open space for the U.S. government to take a more positive role in the national, regional and global spheres.

The U.S. will experience economic returns in the international arena, especially facing the insipient reactivation of the EU, China’s deceleration, South America’s standstill and the recession in Russia. Central America and the Caribbean, already strongly articulated in the North American economy, will benefit from a higher demand for their exports, along with more shipments and tourism.

Second, the United States’ conversion to an exporter of fossil fuels, thanks to its growing gas and oil production, is causing fundamental geostrategic changes. This fact, along with the effects of a less dynamic global economy, has caused a substantial drop in the price of oil. One consequence in our region is that Venezuela’s political weight, based on its ability to supply oil at favorable prices through Petrocaribe [Editor’s note: Petrocraibe is an oil-selling agreement between many Caribbean nations and Venezuela], is shrinking day by day, especially in Central America and the Caribbean. The U.S., as a new gas supplier, will have the possibility of replacing old suppliers and exercising its own influence in this region.

Lastly, with the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with Cuba, the U.S. has opened up space to take a more protagonist role in the region, which will surely be reflected in the Summit of the Americas to be hosted in Panama in April of this year. Raul Castro and Obama will meet at the summit. It would not be surprising if a new agenda of inter-American cooperation emerged in the region. The Organization of American States could be strengthened, and with growing influence from the United States.

Independent of what we think regarding a country meddling in others’ internal affairs, there will be more leadership and capacity for influence by the U.S. administration. This shift will be uncomfortable for the current Guatemalan government along with other national actors that haven’t rid themselves of the vision of Guatemala as “their estate.” The attention the U.S. government gives to issues like human rights, labor regulations, justice, corruption or possible electoral irregularities in Guatemala cannot be trivially discarded or swept under the rug.