Where Exactly Is He Taking Us?

Barack Obama began his administration with the intent to radically change George W. Bush’s foreign policy strategy. Surrounded by realist advisers who represent a foreign policy school that is traditionally close to the Republican right, Obama won the Democratic primary elections and then the national presidential elections.

The then-Senator promised that, from the White House, he would initiate a dialog with the enemies of U.S. without arrogance or presumptions, sure that offering the hand of friendship would force antagonists to open the closed fist. To underline the break from the Bush era, Obama also decided to withdraw troops from Iraq, close the military prison at Guantanamo Bay and avoid harsh words in the war on terrorism.

Obama’s strategy could not be more unrealistic, as he himself is learning day by day. The U.S.A. will have to keep at least 50,000 soldiers in Iraq after the scheduled drawdown and many independent observers are afraid that the underestimation of the Iraq Dossier could compromise the outstanding results achieved during Bush’s final year in office. Guantanamo remains open and newspapers are beginning to report that Obama is sending prisoners to Bagram, Afghanistan, a prison where they have no rights and are treated far worse than in Cuba. The United Nations has reported that, despite rhetoric, Bagram prison doesn’t recognize trial rights and prisoners face open-ended jail terms.

Besides, the world didn’t brighten up on January 20th, 2009. The villains didn’t become heroes; they weren’t touched by the impossible story of the young man from Hawaii. The Facebookpolitik, the foreign policy of smiling via YouTube, the hot-dog strategy and the abandonment of the constant call for “regime change” in the Middle East couldn’t convince Iranian Ayatollahs. Still, Obama pushed forward even when the Ayatollahs accused him of being just like Bush, even when they didn’t respond to his invitation to the 4th of July celebrations in Washington, even after the electoral fraud and the first ten days of protests and violence in Tehran.

Meanwhile, North Korea tested a nuclear weapon, launched a couple of missiles and is ready to send another toward Hawaii during the first few days of July. All of this while European and Middle-Eastern allies complain to the White House: Europeans feel that they’re taken too superficially, Israelis don’t feel protected anymore, and Arabians are afraid of cohabitation with a nuclear Iran.

Still, it’s too early to take stock of Obama’s foreign policy. The president is too ductile and confident a man and has already proved that he’s able to change beliefs on the fly.

By now, he is ready for the worst with North Korea. The president has already said that U.S. will stop offering money and humanitarian aid in exchange for the pursuit of nuclear proliferation agreements. With regards to Iran, he needed eleven days, but in the end Obama realized that he just couldn’t do business with Ayatollahs. In Pakistan, he never got soft; he has already dropped about 20 rounds of bombs, the last one a couple of days ago at a funeral, causing 83 deaths.

But these are contradictory signs in the Obama foreign policy. They are brakes and accelerations. You don’t have to like it, but President Bush’s doctrine provided a clear vision of the world (though never as clear as Reagan’s: “We win, they lose.”). Obama’s world vision is still unclear, unless his policy is to avoid a world vision all together. Then, he is definitely on the right track.