President on Probation

Donald Trump is at once placating and combative in his State of the Union address. He wants to look strong. In reality, he’s in a tight spot. Trump is a president on probation, whose political destiny has long been in the hands of others. Rarely has that been as clear as in his State of the Union address.

New congressional investigations are always threatening Trump, and the Russia affair overshadows his presidency, but there are also possible campaign law violations. Trump explicitly brought up the subject and indirectly warned the Democrats of a “war” if they continue pushing “partisan investigations.” This shows that the president is afraid.

It’s not just the Democrats and Robert Mueller that he has to fear − but also his own party. If his popularity continues to fall, if the entire party is threatened with drowning in his affairs, the Republicans will part with him. They still clap loudly for him. But that means absolutely nothing. Even Richard Nixon was popular with his own people but then lost any support when his crimes became more obvious.

Then there is the matter of campaign promises. With his erratic, confused, uninformed governing style, Trump has lost control of his political agenda piece by piece. Everything he has been able to implement so far has been in the plans of Republicans in Congress − the tax cuts, the appointment of conservative judges. His own big ideas, like the wall with Mexico, the trade deals and the retreat from wars such as that in Syria are not progressing smoothly. The wall, his most important project, now threatens to fail terrifically − or shrink to a mini-wall.

This is not only the fault of Democrats but also of Trump’s own people: They are now putting nearly as many obstacles in Trump’s path in the Senate as the opposition. They think Trump’s plans are either just plain wrong or irresponsible − they just aren’t saying so out loud.

Thus, Trump is still at the mercy of others in the beginning of the third year of his presidency. Nancy Pelosi, with the Democrats in the House of Representatives, and the Republicans in the Senate, under Mitch McConnell, will decide the fate of his wall. They will determine how his foreign policy continues. They will, at the end of the day, approve the trade deals. Or not.

And they will decide if Trump will see the next electoral campaign as president.