China and USA: The New World Axis?

On March 22, the Asian edition of Time magazine published an article predicting that China and the U.S. will form an indispensable new axis in global politics and that the relationship between the two nations will be one of both competition and cooperation. Their cooperation will mainly be economic, but they will conflict over other areas of interest between them. Even though China has joined the international playing field, its emphasis is still on the hope of securing energy, trade routes and regional security through this participation so that it can concentrate its efforts on tackling many domestic problems arising at home. To use Beijing’s words, China needs a stable international and domestic environment in order progress and resolve problems.

The article also mentioned that the U.S. has neither the power nor the desire to besiege China, and warned that while the U.S. does not need to deliberately please China, it does not need to make malignant statements against China. The greatest challenge for Washington at this moment is to encourage China and to allow Beijing to support their bilateral relationship, which allows the U.S. to reap many benefits while conforming to global values.

The Taiwan problem is no longer the focus of the Sino-U.S. relationship.

That saying is true, at least from the perspective of many professionals who have been observing the relationship between China and the U.S. The content of the Time article was fairly accurate, and the U.S.’s policy toward China has had some degree of consistency and continuity. We can actually make a simple categorization of the past U.S. administrations’ policies toward China, in the following ways: One, the U.S. will expect mainland China’s continued assistance and cooperation on various international affairs; two, the U.S. will continue to work toward developing broad and benign Sino-American competition and cooperation; three, Washington will continue to promote the policy of continuing peace with China and asking China to accept international codes of conduct.

Under this policy, the Obama administration will certainly continue to encourage China to play the role of a responsible stakeholder, attempt to influence China’s direction of progress and enhance communication with China in a multi-level and multi-faceted way by establishing dialogue on various issues.

Regarding the trilateral relations between the U.S. and the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, there is a problem regarding Taiwan for Beijing, but Taiwan has always been advocating the U.S.-Taiwan pact. Since we more or less realize that this is an extremely lopsided trilateral relationship, the fact that the Time magazine article only talked about the Sino-U.S. relationship while failing to mention the Taiwan problem was pretty fair and just, especially since the so-called Taiwan problem involves China’s sovereignty, the integrity of its territory and the pride of its people. Any slip-ups in handling this problem would cause unprecedented trouble, and nobody wants to see such a thing happen.

Indeed, the Taiwan problem is not the current focus of Sino-U.S. relations, but I believe that the Obama administration’s attitude toward Taiwan is basically shown in the following strategies. One is to continue to mend and rebuild the mutual trust between the U.S. and Taiwan that has been damaged. The U.S. expects to improve its relations with Taiwan and, at the same time, influence the direction of development in Taiwan’s politics. Second, Washington will continue to supply Taiwan with military equipment and improve Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities in appropriate areas. The third of Obama’s strategies is to treat Taiwan with more dignity while caring for and assisting Taiwan in gaining more meaningful participation in certain international organizations without agitating Beijing excessively.

If China and America cooperate, both sides will benefit. Otherwise, they will only suffer losses.

The three joint communiques and one legislation currently remain the Obama administration’s core policy toward the China-Taiwan situation. The U.S. will still uphold the “One China Policy” as recognized by Washington, even though it refuses to acknowledge China’s sovereignty. It will also continue to maintain reasonable firearms transactions with Taiwan in spite of China’s objection, as well as firmly defend its right to interpret the circumstances between China and Taiwan. Though the U.S. hopes to reduce the tension at the Taiwan Straits and encourage continued dialogue, Washington hopes to take control of the details, such as the peace treaty and the institution of mutual trust. To put it simply, the relationship between the two sides can be improved, but not at the expense of America’s political, economic and strategic interests, or regional balance.

Overall, the Sino-U.S. relationship will bear benefits if both sides cooperate, but will cause losses if they do not, and both sides would lose in a head-on collision. The U.S and China remain in a relationship in which their roles as enemies or allies have yet to stabilize. The U.S. will be skillful in employing multilateralism, soft power and smart power to develop its relations with China, continue to use Taiwan to attempt to influence and balance China’s healthful growth, refuse to allow China to threaten Taiwan, and decline to permit Taiwan’s provocation of Beijing.

Looking at it from the opposing view, we also find that there are already some subtle changes in mainland China’s attitude toward America. Though the U.S. has already accepted China’s status as a superpower, it has always expressed dissatisfaction with this, had some bones to pick with it, and hoped that neither side of the Taiwan Straits will give the U.S. additional problems or create any surprises. Now, Beijing is no longer overly tolerant and is telling the U.S. it hopes for Washington not to create too many surprises for mainland China in its handling of international affairs and the relations between the two sides, basically saying to the U.S. what the U.S. used to tell China. It is apparent that the contrast between China’s and America’s powers affects the changes in the relations between the two nations.

In the foreseeable future, unless there is a major change in Beijing’s policy of reforming and opening up — its economic growth coming to a halt and its society going through an upheaval — the relationship between China and the U.S. has turned from one of cooperation to opposition. Since the integrated national power of China has grown significantly, showing evidence of vibrancy, and its international influence has greatly increased, Taiwan’s influence and value may be severely impacted, making the country more of a liability than an asset to the United States. Though damaging and offending the Sino-U.S. ties is not the right way to go, Taiwan cannot remain in suffering and fear. How Taiwan adjusts its strategies and plans along with the changes in the Sino-U.S. ties, and how it integrates and handles the interaction between “Chimerica” and “Chaiwan” indeed requires a high degree of political wisdom and skill, and it warrants deep contemplation.