Obama at the Crossroads

Published in La Prensa
(Honduras) on 22 October 2010
by Daniel García-Peña (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Rachel Evans. Edited by Alex Brewer.
Today, the Democrats have a comfortable advantage of 59-41 in the Senate and 255-178 in the House, due largely to Barack Obama’s impressive victory two years ago, which combined his excellent campaign of hope with a strong rejection of Bush. But now, Obama has failed to arouse enthusiasm, and the target of discontent is he himself.

The unemployment rate (9.4 percent) is the highest since the great depression of 1930. Despite the billions of dollars from taxpayer’s pockets that they have pumped into the banks, the economy never took off.

It is true that the disaster was inherited and that he managed to avoid the collapse of the global financial system. But in an election campaign, “It could have been worse” is not as catchy as the slogan “Yes we can.”

Obama has had huge success, like the most important reform in history of the health care system; it expands access to millions that lack coverage.

However, the positive effects of such an ambitious undertaking will take years to work their way through. The epitome of absurdity is that the poor, the most benefited, are the ones who vote the least.

In the meantime, for the right-wingers, Obama is imposing socialism. The unusual success of the tea party is nourished by strong anti-Obama sentiments, particularly among working-class white men. The tea party takes advantage of rampant ignorance (close to 25 percent of the population believe that Obama is Muslim and that he was not born in the United States), feeding hate and fear with racial overtones. As ex-President Bill Clinton indicated, “A lot of their candidates today, they make [Bush] look like a liberal.”

The campaigns directed to reveal who these new Republicans are have already begun to have an effect. Some Democrats are on the rebound because many of [the Republican candidates] do not have any experience; some are billionaires with questionable pasts or eccentric characters. For instance, there is a candidate in Delaware who became a national celebrity by claiming that masturbation is a sin.

Nevertheless, there is a risk that the more negative a campaign is, the greater the apathy. In 2008, a historical 58 percent of eligible voters voted; the participation during mid-term elections is usually at 40 percent, which means that the disciplined right-wing vote, few but strong, weighs more.

The eventual defeat of Obama and the Democrats would have huge repercussions. The Republicans winning would not be the same “serious” sectors of the establishment, rather some dangerous and unpredictable fanatics. Nonetheless, even with a defeat, it is not the end of Obama.

Although the levels of discontent are high, he continues to have in his favor the fact that there are no high-ranking national figures that could dispute the presidency of 2012. The most visible continues to be Sarah Palin, who produces more laughs than votes.


Hoy los demócratas tienen una cómoda ventaja de 59-41 en el Senado y 255-178 en la Cámara, producto en gran medida de la impresionante victoria de Barack Obama hace dos años, en la que se combinó su excelente campaña de esperanza con un fuerte rechazo a Bush. Pero ahora, Obama no ha logrado despertar entusiasmo y el blanco del descontento es él.

El desempleo (9,4%) es el más alto desde la Gran Depresión de 1930. Pese a las billonadas de dólares de los bolsillos de los contribuyentes que se les inyectaron a los bancos, la economía nada que despega.

Es cierto que el desastre fue heredado y que se logró evitar el colapso del sistema financiero mundial. Pero en una campaña electoral, “Pudo haber sido peor”, no es un eslogan tan llamativo como “Yes we can”.

Obama ha tenido grandes éxitos, como la reforma del sistema de salud más importante de toda la historia, ampliando el acceso a millones que carecían de cualquier tipo de cobertura.

Sin embargo, los efectos positivos de tan ambiciosa empresa tardan años en sentirse y, para colmo de males, los pobres, los más beneficiados, son los que menos votan.

Mientras tanto, para la extrema derecha, Obama está imponiendo el socialismo. El inusitado éxito del Tea Party se nutre del fuerte sentimiento anti-Obama, particularmente entre hombres blancos de clase trabajadora, aprovechándose de la ignorancia rampante (cerca del 25% de la población cree que Obama es musulmán y que no nació en Estados Unidos), alimentando el odio y el temor con tintes de racismo. Como lo señaló el ex presidente Bill Clinton, “los del Tea Party hacen que Bush parezca liberal”.

Ya han empezado a surtir efecto las campañas dirigidas a develar quiénes son estos nuevos republicanos, muchos sin experiencia alguna, billonarios con dudosos pasados o personajes excéntricos, como la candidata en Delaware, que se volvió celebridad nacional al sostener que la masturbación es un pecado. Y algunos demócratas registran repuntes.

No obstante, se corre el riesgo de que tanta campaña negativa produzca más bien una mayor apatía. Mientras en 2008 votó un histórico 58%, la participación en elecciones de mitad suele estar alrededor del 40%, lo cual significa que el voto disciplinado de la extrema de derecha, pocos pero firmes, pesa mucho más.

La eventual derrota de Obama y los demócratas tiene grandes repercusiones. De ganar los republicanos, no serían los mismos sectores “serios” del establecimiento, sino unos fanáticos peligrosos e impredecibles.De todas maneras, aún con una derrota, no es el fin de Obama.

Si bien los niveles de descontento son altos, sigue teniendo a su favor el hecho de que no hay figuras de talla nacional que le puedan disputar la presidencia en 2012. La más visible sigue siendo Sarah Palin, quien produce más risas que votos.

This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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