Bears Eluding Hunters

It’s as difficult to restrain the euphoria of victory as it is for the despondence of defeat. No matter how much prudence advises moderation, there are circumstances in which it becomes impossible to slow down psychological acceleration — most of all when success was greatly hoped for, or the obstacles seemed insurmountable. It happened to Obama with his victory in November 2008, in what was a historical moment for a country like the Unites States, tainted by its history of slavery and by racial discrimination until recently. And it could now happen to the Republicans, who have recently gained a majority in the House of Representatives and are determined to fight the president for every inch of political territory.

What’s certain is that the election of Obama did not bring about a cyclical change favorable to the Democrats, enabling them to begin a decades-long hegemony. Neither did the Democratic defeat last November guarantee that Obama will bite the dust in November 2012 and be a one-term president. In fact, between the midterm elections that gave the Republicans their majority in the House of Representatives and this week’s convention of the new members of the 112th Congress — the exact period in which many people had already begun to evaluate the price of his hide — Obama has managed to advance his pawns on three political boards as varied as they are significant.

First, he has approved legislation that allows homosexuals to declare themselves as such within the army, a gesture that the gay community has interpreted as an historic advance in civil rights. Second, he has managed to get the Senate to ratify the new START treaty to reduce nuclear stockpiles along with Russia, a cornerstone of his foreign policy, which will allow him to continue entertaining the idea of a world without nuclear weapons. And third, he has negotiated a package of $858 million in tax breaks, an extension in unemployment benefits to 99 weeks and exemptions from making social security contributions. This amounts to the second massive stimulus for growth, according to Charles Krauthammer, a conservative columnist at The Washington Post.

This is how Obama’s first two years have finished; the second two he will tackle head-on, as they are the time in which he will fight for re-election. Bill Clinton managed it after coping with a similar situation. The Republicans will go for broke and won’t leave a single stone unturned. They’ll give him no hope in the budget vote. Will they succeed? No one has yet found a Republican candidate who could take on Obama. Everything exudes growth and maybe even job creation. However, these advantages, still hypothetical, will not be enough. If Obama wants to elude the Republican tricks, the bear will have to show, yet again, its ability to reinvent the presidency.