A Decision Between Plague and Cholera

The United States has to support the Egyptian protestors — if for no other reason than to keep the Islamists in check.

America’s president faces a choice between plague and cholera with the Egyptian situation. Morally, he’s obligated to put his support behind the protestors trying to overthrow a dictator who has ruled Egypt with an iron fist for three decades.

From a geopolitical perspective, Washington certainly has not the least interest in destabilizing the most populous Arab nation. Hosni Mubarak has thus far been the guarantor of stability in that fragile region.

From a realpolitik perspective, the White House must therefore find a solution that balances the credibility of its own interests with the legitimate security requirements of the region. It will be difficult for Obama to find the right tone to adopt beginning with this departure point. That’s why the USA appears to be limping reactively along behind developments in the region.

A sober analysis of developments in Cairo leaves no doubt that Egypt’s future is only imaginable without the beleaguered Hosni Mubarak’s continued presence. Anything else would be tantamount to ignoring the voice of a people seeking freedom and self-determination.

The White House, therefore, has no option but to break its silence or risk losing what remains of its influence there. Obama has to show the old allies the door in no uncertain terms. American diplomats can assist by developing a transition plan that would harness the energy being generated in the streets. The faux-elections scheduled for this fall could be replaced by free, fair and balanced elections held under international supervision.

If the United States continues to stand idly by as developments unfold, it risks allowing extremists to seize control of the revolution. Since Mubarak historically repressed every moderate, secular opposition organization in Egypt, followers of the Muslim Brotherhood appear to be the only organized alternative capable of taking over the governmental reins.

That would be a catastrophe on several levels. The Islamists have neither democracy nor human rights in mind. They threaten to abandon the policy of peace with Israel and ally themselves with the religious government in Iran. Obama must use whatever influence the United States still has and display leadership to avoid ending up with both plague and cholera.