Obama and McCain Court the Spanish Vote

The two [presidential] candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama, are trying to seduce the most important minority in the country, whose strong demographic growth makes them a major factor in the presidential race.

John McCain feels he is in friendly territory. “I come from a frontier state where Spanish was spoken before English. I know what you worry about,” the Arizona Senator said to the hundreds of elected Hispanics assembled last weekend in Washington.

Barack Obama, who followed him at the meeting of the National Association of Latin Elected Officials (NALEO), presented himself as a conquerer: “This election could depend on the number of Latinos who vote,” underlined the Senator from Illinois. “We must build a coalition and your community is in the center. We will change the political menu of this country.”

Respectfully applauded, despite many interruptions from the anti-war movement, Code Pink, John McCain had already left the room when the room applauded for his Democratic rival. “Obama speaks our language,” explained Myrna Maldonado, a town council member from a small town in Indiana. “He is progressive on social issues while also defending family values. McCain is a war hero who deserves our respect, but I disagree with almost everything he says.”

It is one of the biggest stakes in the future election. With more than 45 million members (15% of the population), Latin-American communities constitute the second largest ethnic group in the United States, behind the white majority (66%) and ahead of African Americans (12%). Younger than the national average (27 vs. 38), Latins are also growing the fastest in population (3.4% vs. 1%).

They represent 44% of the population of New Mexico, 36% in California and in Texas, 30% in Arizona and Nevada, and 20% in Florida. “The road to the White House passes through the Latin community,” affirms Adolfo Carrion, President of Naleo.

ILLEGALS, “CHILDREN OF GOD”

Until now, this force has been underrepresented in the ballot box, either being under the age of 18, because of their legal status (it is estimated that 12 million are illegal) or because they have not registered to vote. Barack Obama has made greater Latino participation a cornerstone of his strategy. The goal, explained one of his advisers in the hallway of the assembly, “is to bring the Hispanic vote to 8 or 9 percent of the total electorate” in order to compensate for the traditional Republican majority of the white vote.

In 2004, the Hispanic vote peaked at 6.5%. George W. Bush had received 40%, a record for a Republican. This year, 57% of Latins are leaning towards the Democrats, according to a Pew Research Center poll.

During the primaries, Hillary Clinton largely dominated Barack Obama in this segment of the population. The Democratic candidate is now leading a charm offensive in order to rally those for whom he is the “second choice.” “America has nothing to fear from the immigrants of today,” he states. “They are coming here for the same reasons they came before: to build a better life for their children.”

He accuses McCain of having “turned his back on his own proposed legislation on immigration” because the idea of a path to legalization for illegal immigrants is not popular among Republicans. The Senator from Arizona concedes that he has changed his position: the 12 million illegals “are the children of God,” he says, “but we cannot accept immigration reform until we first secure our borders.” Obama countered McCain, stating “We can be at the same time a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants.”

While the Senator from Arizona plays the sentiment card (“the soldiers of Hispanic origin are my brothers”), his colleague from Illinois enumerates concrete answers to the problems of the community.

One Latin American in three does not have health insurance; Latin Americans experience an above-average unemployment average (6.9%), aggravated by the housing crisis, a level of education weaker than the rest of the population, and an over representation in the Army – especially in Iraq (17.5% of the troops at the front).

“Obama connects the dots and shows us that he has a global vision,” says Myrna Maldonado. At the end, Obama’s team distributed a 47-page brief on the Hispanic electorate. It seemed to work: according to surveys, between 66 and 72% of Hispanics prefer him to John McCain, who remains between 21 and 29%.