Democrats on Road to Failure

With two months to go until the congressional elections in November, Democratic strategists are trying to refine the role and the core message of President Obama ahead of the elections. However, their objective can only minimize the large-scale disaster more than find the winning speech. Only a miracle will make the Democratic Party not head for a resounding defeat. The only argument in their favor is the election of atypical and high-risk candidates in some Republican primaries, such as Sharron Angle in Nevada, who has revived the option of Harry Reid, the Senate Democratic leader. However, the rest of the factors are not in their favor.

Health care reform, which should be the most important and brilliant stamp of the Obama administration, has not increased in value after its approval. The Republican base is anxious and will vote en masse, while the Democrats are apathetic, disillusioned with the war in Afghanistan. The heated debate on immigration favors, in the short term, the Republicans. And last, but not least, 70 percent of the population is against Obama in the controversial plan for the mosque near ground zero.

However, this could be offset if economic growth and job creation reemerge in full force. It was the economic crisis that propelled Obama to the presidency, and it was the main problem that the Americans wanted to solve. However, hopes of recovery were dashed this week after it was registered that the U.S. had the worst unemployment rate since November. Economists predict a slowdown in GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters, although it was 2.4 percent in the second — in other words, a catastrophe for the Democratic candidates.

It is not easy to determine if this situation is mostly the fault of the government’s economic policy, but it really does not matter now because that is how the majority of the population feels about it. And in November, that is the only thing that matters. Most likely, the Republicans will regain 39 seats in the House of Representatives, which they need to gain control over the House. Regarding the Senate — which only renews a third of its members, more or less — it will be more difficult.

Then, Obama will have to get used to facing a divided Congress in 2011, which will compel him to negotiate with Republicans and to make further concessions to pass his legislative initiatives. This is, in principle, good news for conservatives. However, some experts say that the best scenario would be a handful of seats of the majority.

Along with the legislative power comes responsibility. With a Republican majority in the House of Representatives — regardless of whoever the conservative presidential candidate is— you cannot blame the president for everything that goes wrong, because the responsibility is shared between both parties. In addition, recriminations to Obama from the left for lack of boldness and courage will cease, and a period of comprehension will begin. Maybe the left will support Obama’s reelection with the same intensity as in 2008.

There is no doubt that U.S. politics is entering an exciting new phase.