Obama between the Gulf and Tehran

On Thursday, May 14, Barack Obama engaged in a difficult exercise of “cuddle therapy” with America’s allies in the Gulf region. At Camp David in Maryland, he received representatives from the six countries that are most frightened by the prospect of an agreement on Iranian nuclear power. He assured them, without yielding an inch, of his wish to secure a good nuclear nonproliferation document with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the end of June. He was right.

The six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar) especially fear the lifting of economic sanctions imposed on Tehran in case of an agreement with Iran. That will increase the financial power of Iran and the means at its disposal to extend its influence in the region. This will entail the dispensation of more handouts for the profit of Iran’s Arab allies — the Lebanese Hezbollah, the real armies of Shiite Iraqi militias, the Damascus regime (directly supported by Iran) and the Houthis of Yemen.

For the members of the GCC, which, under the direction of Saudi Arabia, is made up of Sunnis, the regional destabilizing capacity of Iran (leader of the minority branch of Islam, Shiism) is going to increase tenfold. They fear that in the regional confrontation that is underway — namely in Syria, Iraq and Yemen — the balance will eventually lean in favor of Shiite Iran.

Incidentally, it is the prospect of an agreement on Iranian nuclear power that eventually pushed the three Sunni powers of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to look beyond their differences and support the Syrian rebels. The goal: strive to bring down Bashar al-Assad, Tehran’s protégé, before the end of June. Hence the current pressure on the Damascus regime.

Arms Race

The fears of the six GCC countries are not unfounded. Obama reiterated at Camp David “the strong partnership and cooperation between the United States and the GCC.” He discussed “concrete, practical steps,” but declined, when asked, to sign a security treaty with them in due form. He’s not wrong. The GCC countries are overflowing with the most sophisticated arms: with an increase of $80 billion dollars last year, Riyadh’s defense budget is six times larger than Tehran’s. The arms race will only exacerbate the large ongoing confrontation in the Middle East, in which the responsibility of Saudi Arabia, a fierce promoter of Islamist extremism, is at least as great as that of Iran, a driver of Shiite expansionism.

No one knows what political and diplomatic dynamic will be brought about by an agreement on Iranian nuclear power – positive, neutral, negative? But, by refusing a unilateral agreement based on the wishes of the GCC and Israel (who both advocate for conflict with Iran), Barack Obama has at least created an opportunity to pave the way for a normalization of relations between Tehran and Washington. Essentially, he has positioned the U.S. to be able to speak with both Iran and Saudi Arabia and to encourage the two regional theocracies to begin a dialogue. Even if it remains tenuous, it is the only real chance to ease the conflict that has set the Middle East ablaze.