What now, Hillary?
WITH only two primaries left in the US presidential nominating process, there seems to be only one real question left: When is Hillary Clinton going to withdraw? Last Tuesday’s results - a significant win for Barack Obama in North Carolina and a sliver of a win for Clinton in Indiana - left her with no chance, save through a miracle, to get the Democratic nomination. That "miracle" could come only through a surge of non-pledged superdelegates to her camp and that appears to be increasingly unlikely.
Originally, Clinton’s argument was a not entirely unreasonable one that she had proven that she was capable of winning the large states with their large number of electoral votes while Obama had not. Clinton won handily in California, New York and Pennsylvania (though somewhat less handily in the last) while Obama could only win in smaller states. With the electoral system that exists in the US, those big states are important. It is possible to win the popular vote in a handful of states and still win the election as long as those states are big ones and have enough electoral votes to outweigh the electoral votes total garnered by the competition from smaller states.
North Carolina has a large black population that was expected to back Obama and it did. But it is also a state that has seen some of its largest industries diminished by free trade agreements that have forced companies to move their manufacturing operations overseas. In other words, it could have been ripe for an old-time Democratic win regardless of the candidate’s color. Indiana is another state that has been ravaged by the erosion of the US manufacturing base and especially by the decline of nearby Detroit’s automobile industry. Its predominantly working class population fit into Clinton’s demographic. Yet, she won by just a small margin.
The Clintons have been known for toughing it out, hanging in long enough that some unforeseen incident or revelation raises its head and brings them back from the political dead. That may happen this time, however, and Hillary can only expect increased calls for her withdrawal. So far, the continued Democratic battle has not significantly hurt the party in the polls as predicted. But that phenomenon could come to an end as the summer passes and the Democrats find themselves playing politics within their own party while Republican nominee John McCain addresses the issues that matter most to the voters.
McCain has already begun addressing the issues. And it is sobering that his approach to his country and the world is uncomfortably similar to that of the current inhabitant of the White House. Clinton needs to take stock of the situation and for the good of the world, not just her own nation, concede defeat.
Originally, Clinton’s argument was a not entirely unreasonable one that she had proven that she was capable of winning the large states with their large number of electoral votes while Obama had not. Clinton won handily in California, New York and Pennsylvania (though somewhat less handily in the last) while Obama could only win in smaller states. With the electoral system that exists in the US, those big states are important. It is possible to win the popular vote in a handful of states and still win the election as long as those states are big ones and have enough electoral votes to outweigh the electoral votes total garnered by the competition from smaller states.
North Carolina has a large black population that was expected to back Obama and it did. But it is also a state that has seen some of its largest industries diminished by free trade agreements that have forced companies to move their manufacturing operations overseas. In other words, it could have been ripe for an old-time Democratic win regardless of the candidate’s color. Indiana is another state that has been ravaged by the erosion of the US manufacturing base and especially by the decline of nearby Detroit’s automobile industry. Its predominantly working class population fit into Clinton’s demographic. Yet, she won by just a small margin.
The Clintons have been known for toughing it out, hanging in long enough that some unforeseen incident or revelation raises its head and brings them back from the political dead. That may happen this time, however, and Hillary can only expect increased calls for her withdrawal. So far, the continued Democratic battle has not significantly hurt the party in the polls as predicted. But that phenomenon could come to an end as the summer passes and the Democrats find themselves playing politics within their own party while Republican nominee John McCain addresses the issues that matter most to the voters.
McCain has already begun addressing the issues. And it is sobering that his approach to his country and the world is uncomfortably similar to that of the current inhabitant of the White House. Clinton needs to take stock of the situation and for the good of the world, not just her own nation, concede defeat.