Trump’s Positions Are Dictated by the Midterms, and Options Are Running Out in the Face of Protracted Conflict
President Donald Trump repeats one answer when asked about Iran: “The war is on its way to ending soon, before or just after the midterm elections in November, because the Iranians want to reach a deal, and we have heard that directly from them.”*
It has become clear that this is a refrain, like those about victory in the war, the destruction of all of Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities, and that Iran is now undergoing a phase of economic collapse due to the American blockade and new financial sanctions. It is like clinging to the narrative of victory as compensation for having exhausted the options to contain an expanding conflict.
Trump’s remarks are entirely campaign-driven, perhaps aimed at limiting the anticipated Republican losses in the midterm elections amid the American public’s dissatisfaction with the war and its devastating impact on ordinary citizens. Contrary to Trump’s positive pronouncements, The Washington Post quoted analysts predicting a massive jump in fuel prices after the elections and suggesting the war is about to enter a new potentially more economically damaging phase.
Oil Turmoil and Gulf Options
It remains unknown how long it will take to repair the Saudi East-West pipeline, which was rendered inoperable by drone attacks launched from Iraqi territory causing the price of a barrel of oil to rise above $100. Houthi attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia also continue, and the Strait of Hormuz remains vulnerable to Iranian strikes, all of which reflects turbulence in oil supplies.
If Trump has nothing to offer the majority of Americans, he has nothing to offer the Gulf leaders he will meet in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations’ General Assembly given the damage these countries have suffered in a war they did not choose. Trump was quick to distance himself from the war in Yemen war and the Houthi attacks, despite their heavy impact on oil prices.
This situation has reinforced the efforts of America’s Gulf allies to seek other regional and international security and economic partnerships, even though dispensing with the American role altogether is not on the table.
China’s Messages and the Dilemma of Withdrawal
Ahead of the expected summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will visit the United States on Sept. 24, Beijing sent a significant message to Trump by hosting Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, whose country imported 90% of its oil from Iran before the war, affirmed China’s commitment to continuing its “strategic cooperation” with Tehran. China reiterated its position that dialogue is the best way to resolve the conflict. American reports say China is providing Iran with technological assistance to Iran, which Iran is using to manufacture missiles.
But Trump, who is now waging a fierce trade war with Canada and threatening to punish the European Union for opening the door to possible membership for Ottawa, will not risk opening another front with China for now. Beijing has warned that it “will defend” its interests if Washington carries out its threat to impose “secondary sanctions” on Chinese banks accused of dealing with Iran.
In this tense climate, Vice President JD Vance made the striking statement that withdrawing from the Middle East now would mean an unprecedented global energy crisis.
This makes it impossible to both stay and withdraw.
*Editor's note: Although accurately translated, the original quoted remarks could not be independently verified.
It has become clear that this is a refrain, like those about victory in the war, the destruction of all of Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities, and that Iran is now undergoing a phase of economic collapse due to the American blockade and new financial sanctions. It is like clinging to the narrative of victory as compensation for having exhausted the options to contain an expanding conflict.
Trump’s remarks are entirely campaign-driven, perhaps aimed at limiting the anticipated Republican losses in the midterm elections amid the American public’s dissatisfaction with the war and its devastating impact on ordinary citizens. Contrary to Trump’s positive pronouncements, The Washington Post quoted analysts predicting a massive jump in fuel prices after the elections and suggesting the war is about to enter a new potentially more economically damaging phase.
Oil Turmoil and Gulf Options
It remains unknown how long it will take to repair the Saudi East-West pipeline, which was rendered inoperable by drone attacks launched from Iraqi territory causing the price of a barrel of oil to rise above $100. Houthi attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia also continue, and the Strait of Hormuz remains vulnerable to Iranian strikes, all of which reflects turbulence in oil supplies.
If Trump has nothing to offer the majority of Americans, he has nothing to offer the Gulf leaders he will meet in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations’ General Assembly given the damage these countries have suffered in a war they did not choose. Trump was quick to distance himself from the war in Yemen war and the Houthi attacks, despite their heavy impact on oil prices.
This situation has reinforced the efforts of America’s Gulf allies to seek other regional and international security and economic partnerships, even though dispensing with the American role altogether is not on the table.
China’s Messages and the Dilemma of Withdrawal
Ahead of the expected summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will visit the United States on Sept. 24, Beijing sent a significant message to Trump by hosting Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, whose country imported 90% of its oil from Iran before the war, affirmed China’s commitment to continuing its “strategic cooperation” with Tehran. China reiterated its position that dialogue is the best way to resolve the conflict. American reports say China is providing Iran with technological assistance to Iran, which Iran is using to manufacture missiles.
But Trump, who is now waging a fierce trade war with Canada and threatening to punish the European Union for opening the door to possible membership for Ottawa, will not risk opening another front with China for now. Beijing has warned that it “will defend” its interests if Washington carries out its threat to impose “secondary sanctions” on Chinese banks accused of dealing with Iran.
In this tense climate, Vice President JD Vance made the striking statement that withdrawing from the Middle East now would mean an unprecedented global energy crisis.
This makes it impossible to both stay and withdraw.
*Editor's note: Although accurately translated, the original quoted remarks could not be independently verified.
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