Another Positive Interaction Between China and U.S.

Published in Wenweipo
(Hong Kong) on 25 April 2009
by Qiu Zhen-Hai (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by John Yu. Edited by Christie Chu.
Compared with the past, the Taiwan issue in Sino-American relations has relatively decreased in sensitivity and importance. But in many cases, heated debates and conflicts have often arisen, especially pertaining to military power, global space, and international rank. However, the American and Chinese people both fear a narrow-minded or black-and-white vision, preferring instead to maintain a more peaceful, empathetic, and constructive attitude. From this angle, the American naval warfare chief's recent attendance of China's naval inspection is not only a courteous gesture, it also fits within the larger trend that Sino-American relations, including military interactions, are taking.

China recently held a naval inspection and America sent a naval warfare chief to attend and observe. At the same time, both the American military and the Indian military, which for a long time has held a competitive relationship with China, offered positive assessments. Although military diplomacy unavoidably contains rhetoric, the American naval warfare chief's attendance has nonetheless has given many people a new understanding of the Sino-American situation, from economics, politics, and military affairs.

National Relations, Mutual Interdependence

I've pointed out in the past that the so-called all-new situation of the 21st century as such: Throughout history every great nation which has arisen went through a period of conflict. Whether it was Nazi Germany or the former Soviet Union, America had its serious rivalries. As for China, the latent conflict over its national position coexists alongside mutual interdependence in a globalized environment. Therefore, former American deputy secretary of state Zoellick iterated the "responsible stakeholder" concept, which became a completely new thought in Sino-American relations.

Of course, along with thought, there is also the need for continuous practical experimentation and perfection. Within this are the factors of continuing development within the larger development of Sino-American relations, and also the policies of America's political parties. However, as long as we grasp the characteristics of the all-new 21st century global situation, complex Sino-American relations will develop a constructive aspect.

In this sense, future Sino-American military relations are a long-term trend, and conflicts between the two sides, whatever form they may take, will continue. But this is just one side of the problem. From another perspective, Sino-American economic interdependence becomes ever stronger with China's rapid economic development. Just from the perspective of trade and financial interdependence, Sino-American economic interdependence has already developed to the point that neither side can, upon a whim, decide to break off and act independently.

For China, although many of her scholars recommend reducing American credit, such an action by China's government at this time would be a great blow to America's economy. In this sense, while China currently expresses worry, it is at least is willing to temporarily continue holding on to American debt, a guarantee of faith towards America's economy.

And it is precisely in this sense that the Obama government recently responded to Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's hope that America will guarantee China's investment safety requests. This response was a guarantee to China, also hoping to use China's confidence and cooperation to garner global confidence toward America as its economy recovers.

As the top level administrations of China and America have such an understanding and chemistry, then in regards to America's current economic situation and governmental control, I believe that the Obama government will be able to guarantee the safety of Chinese investment. In this situation, although Sino-American competition in politics, national strength, and international rank is ever increasing, this competition will kept in check by their economic interdependence.

Relations Necessitate a Stable Attitude

In the relatively long-term future, conflict and interdependence will become two sides of the Sino-American relations coin. The former will become most apparent in competition over military and global ranking affairs, but also to some degree in regards to economic order (such as trade deficit and the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan). The latter will manifest primarily in the interdependence of economic order (both between China and America, and with other nations).


中美軍方再次良性互動
邱震海博士 鳳凰衛視評論員
 與過去相比,台灣問題在中美關係中的敏感性和重要性將相對有所下降;但在許多個案上,中美關係

仍不時將出現激烈的糾紛乃至衝突,尤其是在涉及雙方軍力和國際空間和地位的問題上,但兩國的人

們都切忌一葉障目,以偏概全,相反應維持一種更為平和、寬容和建 設性的心態。從這個意義上說,

美國海軍作戰部長出席中國海軍閱兵式,不僅只是禮節性之舉,而合中美兩國包括軍事互動在內的關

係大趨勢。

 中國日前舉行海軍閱兵,美國派出海軍作戰部長出席觀摩;與此同時,美國軍方以及長期以來與中國

存在一定軍事競爭關係的印度軍方也都對此做出了相當正面的評價。雖然軍事外交上有時不免存在

外交辭令,但美國海軍作戰部長的出席,還是令人對中美兩國從經濟、政治到軍事的各方面態勢有一

些新的認識。

兩國關係 互相依存

 筆者曾指出,所謂二十一世紀的全新格局就是,在人類歷史上所有的大國崛起都曾經歷對抗過程,

而美國 過去無論是與納粹德國還是前蘇聯,都曾嚴重對抗;唯獨與今天的中國,既存在國家定位的

潛在衝突,同時又在全球化環境下互相依賴。因此,美國前副國務卿佐利 克提出「負責任的利益相關

者」概念,成為中美關係中的全新思維。當然,有了思維,還需在實踐中不斷摸索和完善。這其中,既有

兩國關係發展中的不斷演變因素,也有美國兩黨政治的政策變化因素。但只要把握二十一世紀全新國

際格局的特點,那麼未來的中美關係就將在錯綜複雜中展現其建設性的一面。


 從這個意義上說,中美未來在軍力上的磨合、兩國軍方的互相磨合將是一個長期的趨勢;其間,兩國

以這樣或那樣形式表現出來的衝突也將持續不斷。但這只是問題的一個方面。另一方面卻是,隨著中

國經濟的迅速發展,中美兩國在經濟上的互相依存越來越強烈。僅以兩國對金融和貿易領域的依存來

看,中美經濟的互相依賴程度已到了誰都無法憑情緒單獨行動的地步。對中國來說,雖然中國內部有

許多學者建議減持美國國債, 但在目前這樣的時刻,中國政府一旦作出減持美國國債的決定,對美

國經濟而言將是又一個沉重打擊。從這個意義上說,中國政府目前在表示擔憂的同時,願意至少暫時

繼續持有美國國債,其實是對美國經濟作出承諾。

也正是從這個意義上說,
奧巴馬政府不久前
對中國總理溫家寶希望美國保證中國投資安全要求所作出的回應,
既是對中國的承諾,也是希望借助中國的信心和與中國的合作,
在美國經濟復甦的過程中樹立全球對美國的信心。

中美雙方高層既然有了這樣的共識或默契, 那麼就美國經濟目前的態勢和美國政府的掌控能力而言

,相信奧巴馬政府還是有辦法保證中國投資的安全。在此情況下,雖然中美在政治、國力和國際地位

上的競爭日益明顯,但這種競爭必將受到雙方在經濟上互相依存的牽制。


磨合需要平和心態


 在未來相當長的時間內,激烈與互相依存將成為中美關係中的一體兩面;前者更多地體現在雙方在

軍力和國際地位上的競爭,但在相當程度上也將體現在雙方經濟秩序(如貿易逆差和人民幣匯率)的

衝突上;後者則主要體現在雙方在經濟秩序(包括雙邊和多邊)的依存上。

 與過去相比,台灣問題在中美關係中的敏感性和重要性將相對有所下降;但中美關係的上述既競爭

又依存 的性質則將逐漸凸現。在許多個案上,中美關係仍不時將出現激烈的糾紛乃至衝突,尤其是

在涉及雙方軍力及國際空間和地位的問題上(如此次的南海艦船衝突), 但兩國的人們都切忌一葉障

目,以偏概全,相反應維持一種更為平和、寬容和建設性的心態。從這個意義上說,美國海軍作戰部長

出席中國海軍閱兵式,不僅只是禮 節性之舉,而且也符合中美兩國包括軍事互動在內的關係大趨勢



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