The United States May Ease North Korea Policy
Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 27 May 2009
by Wu Zhi Hao (link to original)
North Korea's announcement on the 25th of a second successful nuclear weapons test has attracted “Huanqiu”'s utmost attention. During an early morning interview, Shen Dingli, current vice-president of Fudan University's International Affairs Research Institute, indicated that North Korea's strategy may once again succeed in pushing the Obama administration into toning down its position on North Korea, and that Japan may use this as an opportunity to enhance its military or relax restrictions on its defense policy.
Shen Dingli stated that since the Lee Myung-bak administration came to power, policies concerning North Korea have experienced a major change. As a result, North Korea has been continuously critical of South Korea's substantial regression. Meanwhile, after a brief period of observation, North Korea has accused the Obama administration of being nearly identical to the Bush administration, and that it is very likely that they will overturn the policy to keep in contact with North Korea.
In this type of situation, North Korea believes that the threat to their nation’s safety from America and South Korea is becoming increasingly great, and therefore it is necessary to increase its nuclear deterrence capability in order to maintain security. Shen Dingli believes that the basic reason behind the North's nuclear test has resulted from a lack of trust between nations. “If there is not a change in the existing view on national security from all the countries involved, North Korea will definitely continue to conduct more nuclear tests up until they become a nuclear weapons nation.”
“In response to the actions made by the North Koreans, America is of course giving off the appearance that they are in staunch opposition,” Shen Dingli said, “but the United States government is very realistic; in their minds, they have already come to the understanding that North Korea, which has come to posses nuclear capability over night, will not be persuaded to willingly call it quits – unless North Korea experiences a change in leadership.”
Back at the time when the four-party talks mechanism was in place, there was an argument that North Korea was near collapse, but until now the six-party talks have been convening for several years and the North Korean state is, as before, still very stable. “You could therefore say that the United States is very clear that they have no choice but to gradually accept the reality that North Korea has nuclear weapons. And this nuclear test could very well increase the rate at which the Obama administration lightens up their policy on North Korea.”
Relative to the U.S., Japan's attitude might be much more unyielding, and one should not eliminate the possibility that Japan will use this as an opportunity to increase its military power or to amend its defense policy. A subordinate committee group of Japan's ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party, recently suggested that the Japan Self-Defense Forces should have the capacity to launch a preemptive military attack against hostile military sites. And now in light of yet another North Korean nuclear test, this suggestion may receive a much greater response.
In addition, shortly after the second weapons test by the North Koreans, the Japanese government stated that they would request the United Nations Security Council to discuss new sanction resolutions on North Korea. After North Korea's first nuclear weapons test in October of 2006, the Security Council unanimously passed resolution number 1718 with regards to the issue of the North Korea’s nuclear weapons test, denouncing the country’s actions and demanding that they give up their plans for nuclear weapons and their nuclear program.
Shen Dingli believes that there is a good chance that the Security Council will pass a new resolution sanctioning North Korea, but it is difficult to say whether or not it will have any effect. “After resolution number 1718 appeared on the stage, North Korea absolutely did not experience any substantial blow.”
In comparison, the current world situation and that of 2006 have not seen any fundamental changes; therefore, North Korea will rest assured that even if the Security Council passes new sanction resolutions, they will still be unable to affect the pace of North Korea's development.
Shen Dingli stated that since the Lee Myung-bak administration came to power, policies concerning North Korea have experienced a major change. As a result, North Korea has been continuously critical of South Korea's substantial regression. Meanwhile, after a brief period of observation, North Korea has accused the Obama administration of being nearly identical to the Bush administration, and that it is very likely that they will overturn the policy to keep in contact with North Korea.
In this type of situation, North Korea believes that the threat to their nation’s safety from America and South Korea is becoming increasingly great, and therefore it is necessary to increase its nuclear deterrence capability in order to maintain security. Shen Dingli believes that the basic reason behind the North's nuclear test has resulted from a lack of trust between nations. “If there is not a change in the existing view on national security from all the countries involved, North Korea will definitely continue to conduct more nuclear tests up until they become a nuclear weapons nation.”
“In response to the actions made by the North Koreans, America is of course giving off the appearance that they are in staunch opposition,” Shen Dingli said, “but the United States government is very realistic; in their minds, they have already come to the understanding that North Korea, which has come to posses nuclear capability over night, will not be persuaded to willingly call it quits – unless North Korea experiences a change in leadership.”
Back at the time when the four-party talks mechanism was in place, there was an argument that North Korea was near collapse, but until now the six-party talks have been convening for several years and the North Korean state is, as before, still very stable. “You could therefore say that the United States is very clear that they have no choice but to gradually accept the reality that North Korea has nuclear weapons. And this nuclear test could very well increase the rate at which the Obama administration lightens up their policy on North Korea.”
Relative to the U.S., Japan's attitude might be much more unyielding, and one should not eliminate the possibility that Japan will use this as an opportunity to increase its military power or to amend its defense policy. A subordinate committee group of Japan's ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party, recently suggested that the Japan Self-Defense Forces should have the capacity to launch a preemptive military attack against hostile military sites. And now in light of yet another North Korean nuclear test, this suggestion may receive a much greater response.
In addition, shortly after the second weapons test by the North Koreans, the Japanese government stated that they would request the United Nations Security Council to discuss new sanction resolutions on North Korea. After North Korea's first nuclear weapons test in October of 2006, the Security Council unanimously passed resolution number 1718 with regards to the issue of the North Korea’s nuclear weapons test, denouncing the country’s actions and demanding that they give up their plans for nuclear weapons and their nuclear program.
Shen Dingli believes that there is a good chance that the Security Council will pass a new resolution sanctioning North Korea, but it is difficult to say whether or not it will have any effect. “After resolution number 1718 appeared on the stage, North Korea absolutely did not experience any substantial blow.”
In comparison, the current world situation and that of 2006 have not seen any fundamental changes; therefore, North Korea will rest assured that even if the Security Council passes new sanction resolutions, they will still be unable to affect the pace of North Korea's development.
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