Obama’s Coming Autumn

Published in El Pais
(Spain) on 5 September 2009
by Francisco G. Basterra (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Annie Moulton. Edited by Alex Brewer.
Obama has had a bad August and enters an autumn in which he is going to have to opt for something that, until now, he has avoided by dodging media criticism with his rhetorical magic. But in Washington, after a vacation to the exclusive island Martha’s Vineyard and an eight-month grace period, he now needs to translate the poetry of his mandate into prose. And he must do it with two life or death situations for his presidency: the war in Afghanistan, “his war,” and his stranded healthcare reform in Congress, submitted during a summer of scrutiny and massive misinformation and slander organized by rightist groups.

This has penetrated a population where the majority of people still consider the words “government” and “public” obscene. On Wednesday, Obama will go to Capitol Hill to explain to both houses of Congress that the United States needs to reform from the bottom up a system of healthcare that had originally left 46 million Americans outside of its umbrella, and threatens to hurt public accounts.

How it is possible that they [Democrats] control Congress with an absolute majority, yet President Obama’s principle reform is threatened? Many believed that the arrival of Barack meant that the United States had begun to Europeanize itself. Wrong.

Congress in Washington does not operate by party block voting like European parliaments do: Representatives think only about their reelection and not always about saving their boss already in the White House. The recession has frightened Americans who see temporary recovery through the state, but won’t allow the remote possibility that their world, genetically individualistic, might support European socialism.

Obama wants to offer it all at once: increase in coverage to almost 100 percent, reduction in healthcare costs and two options – the current private one and a public option to please unions and the Democratic left. Total consensus is impossible. Obama, in search of a compromise that makes him appear like a great unifier, could retract – to save the reform bill – the option of public health care that would compete with the private sector.

In the New York Times, Jean Edward Smith, author of the book “F.D.R.,” thinks the president should govern as he wants and should not be scared to apply the views of the wide majority against the desires of the minority. Smith asks him to do as Roosevelt did in the New Deal when he did not solicit the permission of the banks to create the SEC, the institution that today regulates excesses on Wall Street.

Afghanistan and the increasing threat of failure — as the Economist predicts — is an international test that also affects Europeans and Spain: We have deployed 1,200 of the 110,000 Western troops, and this week they have entered into combat, overshadowing anything Obama does this autumn. This could easily end up being another Vietnam for the young president. Barack considers this war “necessary” and therefore fair, unlike wars of “choice,” like in Iraq. In August he reaffirmed in front a group of veterans that “Afghanistan is not only a war worth fighting. It is essential for the defense of our people.”

Didn’t Obama already end the unending war on terrorism declared by Bush and the neocons? The objectives for the war are confusing and not understood by North American and European public, seeing as the leaders of Al Qaeda are in Pakistan. The elections have been a disaster; Karzai, surrounded by narc-traffickers and warlords, lacks legitimacy and presides over a corrupt government; the Taliban insurgency is becoming bolder and ever more prepared; the protection of the Afghan population would require 500,000 soldiers (one for every 50 inhabitants); the United States military thinks that the Taliban is already psychologically and geographically gaining ground, and for them winning comes down to just not losing. The Pentagon is about to ask Obama to allow a military escalation.

In the U.S. they believe, even among Democrats, that this war is unwinnable and are requesting a timetable for withdrawal. Conservative columnist George F. Will recommends to Obama the words of De Gaulle, who refers to the decision made by Otto Von Bismarck in 1870 to stop German troops at the gates of Paris. He said, “Genius sometimes consists of knowing when to stop.”


Obama ha tenido un mal agosto y se adentra en un otoño en el que va a tener que optar, algo que hasta ahora ha ido evitando mientras cabalgaba a lomos de unos medios acríticos y de su magia retórica. Pero ya en Washington, después de unas vacaciones en la exclusiva isla de Martha's Vineyard, consumido un largo periodo de gracia de más de ocho meses, necesita traducir la poesía de su mandato en prosa. Y tiene que hacerlo en dos asuntos de vida y muerte para su presidencia: la guerra de Afganistán, que es "su guerra", y la reforma sanitaria encallada en el Congreso y sometida durante el a un duro castigo de desinformación masiva y calumnia, organizado por grupos de ultraderecha, que ha calado en una población para la que, mayoritariamente, las palabras Gobierno y Público siguen siendo obscenas. Obama acudirá el miércoles al Capitolio para explicar ante las dos cámaras del Congreso por qué EE UU necesita reformar a fondo una sanidad que deja fuera de su paraguas a 46 millones de norteamericanos y amenaza con quebrar las cuentas públicas.
Tras ocho meses de gracia, Obama debe traducir la poesía de su mandato en prosa
¿Cómo es posible que controlando con mayorías absolutas el Congreso, la principal reforma de la presidencia Obama esté amenazada? Muchos creyeron que la llegada de Barack significaba que EE UU se estaba europeizando. Error. El Congreso de Washington no opera con la disciplina partidaria de voto con la que lo hacen los parlamentos europeos: los diputados piensan sobre todo en su reelección y no en salvar siempre a su jefe de filas aunque esté en la Casa Blanca. La recesión ha asustado a los estadounidenses que ven aliviados la recuperación temporal del papel salvavidas del Estado pero palidecen ante la remota posibilidad de que su mundo, genéticamente individualista, importe un "socialismo" a la europea. Obama ha querido ofrecer todo a la vez: aumento de la cobertura hasta casi un 100%; reducción de costes sanitarios; doble opción, que atrae a los sindicatos y a la izquierda demócrata. El consenso total es imposible. Obama, en búsqueda de un compromiso que le haría aparecer como el gran conciliador, podría suprimir, para salvar la reforma, la opción de un seguro público garantizado por el Estado, en competencia con los actuales seguros privados. Jean Edward Smith, autor del libro F.D.R., le recuerda al presidente en el The New York Times que gobernar implica optar y que no tenga miedo a aplicar su amplia mayoría contra el disenso de la minoría. Le pide que haga como Roosevelt en el New Deal cuando no solicitó permiso a los banqueros para crear la SEC, la institución que regula los excesos de Wall Street.
Afganistán y la creciente amenaza de fracaso, que predice The Economist, es un asunto internacional que también nos afecta a los europeos y a España: tenemos desplegados allí 1.200 soldados, de un total de 110.000 tropas occidentales, que esta misma semana han entrado en combate, ensombrece también el otoño de Obama y podría convertirse en el Vietnam del joven presidente. Barack la considera una guerra "necesaria" y por lo tanto justa, frente a las guerras de "opción", que eliges, por motivos políticos, como fue la de Irak. En pleno agosto afirmó ante un grupo de veteranos que "Afganistán no es sólo una guerra que merece la pena luchar. Es fundamental para la defensa de nuestra población". ¿No había dado ya Obama por concluida la guerra ilimitada contra el terrorismo declarada por los neocons de Bush? Los objetivos de la guerra son confusos y no son entendidos por las opiniones públicas norteamericana y europea; los jefes de Al Qaeda están en Pakistán. Las elecciones han resultado un fracaso; Karzai, rodeado de narcotraficantes y señores de la guerra, carece de legitimidad y preside un Gobierno corrupto; la insurgencia talibán es cada vez más audaz y está más preparada; la protección de la población afgana requeriría 500.000 soldados (uno por cada 50 habitantes); militares estadounidenses estiman ya que psicológicamente y sobre el terreno los talibanes están ganando, y para ellos ganar es no perder. El Pentágono está a punto de pedir a Obama una escalada bélica. Crece en EE UU, también entre los demócratas, la idea de que la guerra no puede ganarse y las peticiones de un calendario de retirada. El columnista conservador George F. Will le recuerda a Obama las palabras de De Gaulle, quien refiriéndose a la decisión de Bismarck deteniendo en 1870 a las tropas alemanas a las puertas de París, dijo que "El genio a veces consiste en saber cuando parar".

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