U.S. Investors Dismiss Rising Interest Rates

Published in El Diario Exterior
(Spain) on 20 November 2009
by Carlos Lamadrid (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Grant Wheeler. Edited by Joanne Hanrahan.
The majority of market analysts believe that the United States Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rates during the first half of 2010.

According to a survey of fund managers issued by Merrill Lynch of Bank of America, investors anticipate that the Fed (Federal Reserve) won't modify interest rates until at least the second half of that year.

One out of six participants believe that the central Bank of America will not modify the reference interest rate, which is approximately 0.25 percent, until 2011.

With respect to prices, 47 percent of those surveyed believe that the underlying inflation at the world level will tend to climb in the next year, up from the 39 percent who had that impression last October.

Furthermore, as Merrill Lynch points out, there is an increase in demand for assets that protect investors from inflation, such as gold and petroleum, and it notes that 25 percent of the managers surveyed increased their investments in raw materials, as opposed to the 11 percent who had done so in October.

At the same time, investments considered by investors as protection against falling prices (deflation), such as fixed income or investment in public services, are less popular these days, according to the banking body.

"Investors see inflation as a greater risk than deflation", stated Michael Hartnett, the spokesman for Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research, in a press release. He added that this perception would cause people to strengthen investments in raw materials and emerging markets and to reduce the stockpiling of cash.

Another part of the survey reveals a change in opinion on whether companies should get on board with debt reduction before committing to new investments. 50 percent of those surveyed believed this to be true two months ago, whereas only 36 percent believe so now.





Los inversores descartan que suban los tipos de interés en Estados Unidos

La mayoría de los analistas de mercado considera que la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos mantendrá los tipos de interés durante la primera mitad de 2010

Los inversores anticiparon que la Fed no los modificará hasta, al menos, el segundo semestre de ese año, según una encuesta entre gestores de fondos divulgada por Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Uno de cada seis participantes en el sondeo -que en general tendieron a demostrar un creciente interés por el riesgo- considera, incluso, que el banco central estadounidense no modificará los tipos de interés de referencia, que se hallan entre el 0 y el 0,25 por ciento, antes de 2011.

Respecto de los precios, un 47% de los encuestados cree que la inflación subyacente a nivel mundial tenderá a subir en el próximo año, frente a un 39% que tenía esa impresión el pasado octubre.

La entidad bancaria señala, además, que ha aumentado la demanda de activos que protegen a los inversores frente a la inflación, tales como el oro, el petróleo o valores en mercados emergentes, y apunta que un 25% de los gestores encuestados elevó la inversión en materias primas, frente al 11% que lo había hecho en octubre.

A la vez, otros activos que los inversores consideran que los protegen frente a la caída generalizada de los precios (deflación), tales como la renta fija o las inversiones en servicios públicos, son menos populares en estos momentos, según la entidad.

"Los inversores ven la inflación como un riesgo más elevado que la deflación", subrayó el experto de Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research, Michael Hartnett, en un comunicado de prensa en el que agregó que esa percepción los lleva a fortalecer sus inversiones en materias primas y mercados emergentes, y a rebajar la compra de dólares.

El sondeo revela por otra parte variaciones en la percepción que tenían los inversores hace solo dos meses de que las empresas debían abordar la reducción de la deuda antes de plantearse nuevas inversiones, ya que antes compartía esa opinión el 50% de los encuestados y ahora sólo el 36 por ciento.
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