Israel – Palestine, Great Danger

Published in ABC.es
(Spain) on 29 April 2010
by Darío Valcárcel (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Veronica Pascarel. Edited by Mary Lee.
With the passage of time, Israel’s feelings about its Muslim neighbors are worsening. There is increasing confrontation with Turkey and an American prohibition regarding attack on Iran. Israel continues to have dialogue with Jordan, which is generally considered to be a weak opponent.

However, what has most deteriorated is dialogue with the United States and the European Union. While the E.U. is still stuck in an existential crisis, it continues to be Palestine’s greatest benefactor. Without European money, the hope of all Palestinians would have vanished many years ago.

Israel has not been perceived as being so close to war since 1990. Avigdor Lieberman, the ultra right Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs to Benjamin Netanyahu’s government coalition, is talking about being close to war in their party meetings. More flexible, but also tougher, is Ehud Barak, Israeli Minister of Defense, representing the Labor Party and the military reserve. And the list could be extended.

The United Stated and the European Union have distanced themselves from Israel. The quartet composed of Russia, the U.N., the U.S. and the E.U. is tiring. Unconditional American support and the mostly conditional support of the E.U. are not at the same levels they used to be. Netanyahu has provoked the U.S. to an arm-wrestling competition by continuing to build new settlements in Jerusalem. Israel will lose the contest.

On its side, Europe has always played an important role in peace projects. During the time Javier Solana was the High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union (1999-2009), he and his team represented a faction supporting the ceaseless process of producing peace expectations and confrontations with the enemies of peace; not only in diplomatic matters, but also in the strategic, economic, and political arenas.

Today, European involvement has dropped to minimum levels. Catherine Ashton, the new Vice President of the European Commission (2010-14), has entered into, and continues to be in, a stage of reflection since Christmas, and most likely will continue to be in such a stage throughout summer.

The Israeli imagination, always afflicted by suspicion, is in an alert stage. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars are under the control of America. However, another confrontation in the Middle East could be uncontrollable.

The vast conflict zones in Jordan and in Kashmir share a common ground: Iran. The United States is attentively using all of its surveillance methods: spacial, aerial and, and on-the-ground military intelligence. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and United States National Security Adviser General James Jones do not get much rest.

The Russia-U.N.-U.S.-E.U. quartet has ended up being a failure, especially since Tony Blair started being part of its management team. It is notable what things an experienced prime minister cannot do when he decides to be idle in a position full of responsibilities.

Today, the scene seems motionless, similar to John Ford’s movies, where the only sound comes from crickets while the cowboys are waiting seated in a bar.

Netanyahu has stated multiple times that a Palestine state is not possible today or tomorrow. Syria seems to be firm in reaching its agenda for the return of Golan, under Israeli power since 1967. The inexplicable Saudi support for Syria is a mystery, but Syria does have such a support. Israeli Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Daniel Ayalon has declared that “We pay the price for defending U.S. values in this area.”

We are far past Oslo’s peace times. The enormous advance that was achieved at Oslo demonstrated that there was a possibility for a true peace for the conflict that started in 1948. Let’s remember that two experienced leaders on a mission in Madrid, who were involved in Oslo, Shamuel Hadas and Shlomo Ben Ami, are both missing: the former died in a hospital accident and the latter semi-exiled in Spain. The value of the negotiations is decreasing.

Avigdor Lieberman's position is ascending. Today, we are pretending that everything is going well. However, nothing is going well in the Middle East. Israel has never felt so threatened and Palestine has never felt so forgotten. Among the outlooks for the future, today’s is the worst.


A medida que pasa el tiempo, Israel tiene peores ideas sobre sus vecinos musulmanes. Enfrentamiento creciente con Turquía. Prohibición americana de atacar a Irán. Jordania es adversario débil, con el que Jerusalén aún dialoga. Pero el diálogo se ha deteriorado con Estados Unidos, también con la Unión Europea. La Unión, embarrancada en su crisis existencial, sigue siendo el primer donante de Palestina. Sin el dinero europeo, las esperanzas palestinas se hubieran evaporado hace años ya.
Desde 1990, nunca se ha sentido Israel tan cerca de la guerra. Avigdor Lieberman, ministro ultraderechista de Relaciones Exteriores en el gobierno de coalición de Benjamin Netanyahu, lo dice así en las reuniones internas de su partido. Más matizado pero más duro es Ehud Barak, ministro de Defensa en representación de los laboristas y general del ejército en la reserva. La lista es prolongable.
Estados Unidos y la UE se han distanciado de Israel. El cuarteto se ha cansado (Rusia, Naciones Unidas, EE.UU. y la Unión Europea). El incondicional apoyo americano, y el más condicional de la UE, no son ya lo que eran. Netanyahu ha intentado echar un pulso a Estados Unidos al edificar nuevos asentamientos en Jerusalén. Va a perder ese pulso. Europa, por su parte, era un actor activísimo en los proyectos de paz. Mientras Javier Solana fue Alto Representante (1999-2009), él y su equipo fueron una máquina incesante de producir expectativas de paz, enfrentamientos con los enemigos de la paz: no sólo en el terreno diplomático, también en el estratégico, económico, político. Hoy la actividad europea ha descendido a niveles mínimos. La señora Catherine Ashton, nueva Alta Representante, se dio, en Navidad, unos meses de reflexión y en ellos sigue, aunque el verano amenace con suceder a la primavera. La imaginación israelí, siempre atormentada por la sospecha, está de nuevo al rojo. Irak y Afganistán son, para América, guerras bajo control. Un incendio en Oriente Próximo podría ser incontrolable.
Las grandes zonas de conflicto (en el Jordán; en Cachemira) comparten un ángulo común, Irán. Al final Estados Unidos observa atentísimo, con todos sus ojos, espaciales, aéreos, de inteligencia militar. Robert Gates, secretario de Defensa, y el general James Jones, consejero de Seguridad de la Casa Blanca, duermen poco y mal.
El cuarteto ha sido un fracaso, especialmente desde que Tony Blair se convirtió en su gestor. Es notable lo que un antiguo primer ministro puede no hacer cuando decide vagar en un puesto de responsabilidad.
El panorama parece hoy inmóvil, como en las películas de John Ford, en un anochecer de calor sobre el Mississippi, cuando sólo se oyen los grillos y los vaqueros esperan sentados, mordiendo un palillo, en un bar, junto al río. Netanyahu ha repetido que el estado palestino no es para hoy ni para mañana. Siria parece decidida a lograr un calendario para la retrocesión del Golán, en poder de Israel desde 1967. El inexplicado apoyo saudí a Siria es un misterio, pero es. El viceministro israelí de Relaciones Exteriores declara, no sin desenvoltura: «En esta región, pagamos el precio de defender los valores de Estados Unidos».
Los tiempos de Oslo están lejos. El enorme avance allí conseguido demostraba que sí, que era posible una verdadera paz en un conflicto comenzado en 1948. Recordemos sólo a dos antiguos jefes de misión en Madrid, implicados en Oslo, Shamuel Hadas y Shlomo Ben Ami, ambos desaparecidos, el primero muerto en un accidente hospitalario, el segundo semiexiliado en España. La cotización de los negociadores baja. Sube la de Avigdor Lieberman.
Hoy fingimos que todo va. Y en Oriente Próximo casi nada va. Nunca Israel se ha sentido tan amenazado. Ni Palestina tan olvidada. Entre los diagnósticos del momento, este es el peor.
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