President Obama’s Counterterrorism Gamble

Published in Mainichi
(Japan) on 2 June 2011
by Keiichi Shirato (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Sylvie Martlew. Edited by Derek Ha.
Democratization of the Middle East may be a double-edged sword

In a speech on May 19, U.S. President Barack Obama announced America’s new Middle East policies, which aim to support a transition to democracy in the region.

This gives the impression of a significant change in U.S. anti-terrorism strategy, which has previously relied on the dictatorial governments of various Middle Eastern nations. Its motivation, however, also lies in the domestic economic situation of the United States.

Erasing the “negative legacy” of the Bush administration

President Obama has recently been responding to the hopes of the Arab people by demanding democratization in the Middle East. This is regarded to be closely linked to a U.S. interest in domestic security.

In the context of the War on Terror on which the Bush administration embarked after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, great importance has been placed on supporting the pro-American governments that have to endure U.S. proxy wars against terrorist organisations. The question of whether or not these governments were democratic was treated as secondary. This attitude of backing dictatorships while preaching democracy has met with increasing resistance from the people and has given rise to a vicious circle of new, anti-American terrorists.

In a speech during his visit to Egypt in June 2009, Obama declared “a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world,” and expressed his desire to build a future-oriented relationship with the Islamic world. In his latest speech, he said he wanted to erase the negative legacy of the Bush administration by “support[ing] transitions to democracy,” and to ensure America’s national security by improving relations with the Muslim world. This point has been described as an extension of his speech from two years ago.

The alleged killing of Osama bin Laden, supreme leader of the international terrorist organisation al-Qaida, has also worked in the President’s favor as he set out to “support transitions to democracy.” Capturing and killing bin Laden was the original purpose of the War on Terror. By achieving this aim, Obama has taken it into his own hands to create an environment in which he can tentatively suspend the War on Terror and devote himself to supporting democracy in the Middle East.

Within Congress and the U.S. armed forces, however, there exists a view that “a democratization of the Middle East will make it easier for terrorist organisations to operate”* and that the president is “taking a huge gamble,”* according to Western diplomatic sources.

*These two quotes, accurately translated, could not be verified.


オバマ米大統領:対テロ「賭け」 中東民主化支持、両刃の剣

 米国のオバマ大統領は先月19日の演説で、中東の民主化を支持する中東新政策を発表した。これは、中東各国の独裁体制に依存してきた米国のテロ対策の変化を印象づけるものだが、背景には、米国内の経済事情もある。
 ◇前政権「負の遺産」清算

 ●安全保障

 【ワシントン白戸圭一】オバマ大統領は中東での民主化要求という新たな状況を踏まえ、アラブ民衆の希望に応えることこそが米国の安全保障上の利益につながると判断した模様だ。

 同時多発テロ(01年9月11日)を受けてブッシュ前政権が打ち出した「対テロ戦争」は、テロ組織との代理戦争を担う親米政権への支援が重視され、政権が民主的か否かは二の次とされた。このため「民主主義」を唱えながら実際には独裁政権を支持する米国への反発が民衆の間で強まり、新たな反米テロリストが供給される悪循環が生じた。

 このためオバマ大統領は09年6月のエジプト訪問時の演説で、「世界のイスラム教徒と米国の新たな関係の始まりを求める」と述べ、イスラム世界との未来志向の関係構築に意欲を示した。今回の演説は「民主化支持」をテコにブッシュ前政権の負の遺産を清算しようとしており、アラブ・イスラム世界との関係改善を通じて米国の安全を保障しようとする点で、2年前の演説の延長上にあると言える。

 大統領が「民主化支持」を打ち出すに当たって、国際テロ組織アルカイダの最高指導者ウサマ・ビンラディン容疑者の殺害も有利に働いた。「対テロ戦争」は元々、同容疑者の拘束・殺害が最大の目的だったため、大統領は目的達成により前政権が始めた「対テロ戦争」に一応の区切りを付け、民主化支援に専念できる環境を手にしたからだ。

 ただ、米軍や米議会内には今も「中東が民主化するとテロ組織が活動しやすくなる」との考えがあり、大統領の民主化支持は「大きな賭け」(西側外交筋)と見る向きもある。
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