Will Mexico Stand with Obamaor with Romney?

Published in El Universal
(Mexico) on 3 June 2012
by Susana Chacón (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Natalia Barnhart. Edited by Hodna Nuernberg.
Although it had been clear for months, the United States’ Republican presidential nomination was not finalized until last Tuesday. As expected, Mitt Romney won. Barack Obama now has his official opponent. And now: Who is Mitt Romney? What does he think of Mexico? What will his policies toward Mexico look like? Of the two candidates, who would be better for us?

We know that the last three presidential elections were determined by the Latino vote. This time there will be 12 million Latinos who can vote in November. In recent years, they have stood with Obama — even though immigration reform has been pushed to the bottom of the agenda. We know the current Democratic president’s policies in all aspects relating to Mexico, from security to tourism. We know him as a president and as an individual. We have been affected by the difficulties that he has encountered in his first term, as he struggled to govern without the support of the majority of Congress. The Republican opposition in Congress has frozen the bulk of his proposals. We also know that it is very likely that he could implement his projects more easily in a second term, which would, most likely, allow us to see the real Obama at long last: the Obama who fell to the legacy of Bush, the global crisis and the lack of internal consensus.

At this point, we know very little about the Republican candidate. We do not know Mitt Romney. He is a man of the right, both in business and in law. Beyond that, he has deeply ingrained family values. Yet, he was the least accepted by the tea party among all of his Republican rivals for the nomination. He has been in a stable marriage since 1969 and has five children and 16 grandchildren. He is a Mormon. Romney is the son of American parents, but he has quite an interesting history. His father was born in Mexico. The elder Romney could be considered Mexican by law, but the possibility has never been seriously considered — he was born here for strictly circumstantial reasons. His grandparents lived in the country briefly. At the age of five or six, he returned to the United States and grew up there. He never maintained a connection with Mexico and, as opposed to George and Laura Bush — or Bill Richardson — he has no family ties in Mexico. We expect that Mitt Romney will use this connection to approach the Latino community and potentially win a greater portion of the vote. He says that he will not use this tactic, but in politics anything goes. He has a very definite vision about what the role of the leadership in the U.S. should be.

Now then, what has he said about the topics that are of concern to Mexicans? What has he said, and what has he proposed? In the case of immigration, he has emphasized that he is not against immigration, as he has been accused. He maintains that he favors it, but only by legal means. The U.S. is a country of immigrants, he says. What has not changed is that he intends to penalize employers by means of a card, E-verify. He claims that it will enable them to identify which of their employees are illegal and to deport those who are. He speaks of a program of “self-deportation,” which is unlikely — he expects that thousands of illegal immigrants will voluntarily return to their places of origin. He is concerned that the border is too porous, since it opens the possibility that illegals will enter the U.S. and even carries the risk that many of these immigrants will be members of organized crime — or even terrorists. He seeks the admission of immigrants who are better prepared, with better academic and work credentials. In turn, he proposes protection for legal immigrants and offers support for the 4.5 million who hope to enter legally. He maintains that he has no interest in legalizing any illegal immigrants, as they represent “magnets” that encourage illegal immigration. So far, he has opposed amnesty. On border security, he wants to finish the high-tech wall and rely on Border Security personnel to secure the stability of the southern border. On security, Romney wants to continue with the Merida Initiative, drawing upon many of the measures implemented in Colombia. He will prioritize the issue of the current high level of violence and the role played by organized crime along the border. He intends to not only maintain but, indeed, to intensify the policies of military cooperation, training and development of intelligence. On commerce, he is in favor of free trade and intends to continue with NAFTA. He wants a well-established relationship with Mexico, but improved to the extent that he can count on higher-level institutions.

These are still very broad ideas. Mexico should tend to its relationship with both candidates to avoid the misunderstandings that have come up in the past.




Aunque era claro desde hace un par de meses, no fue sino hasta el martes pasado cuando se formalizó la candidatura republicana en EU. Como era de esperarse, ganó Mitt Romney. Barack Obama tiene ya un contrincante formal. Y a todo esto, ¿quién es Mitt Romney? ¿Qué piensa de México? ¿Cómo sería su política bilateral? ¿Quién de los dos nos conviene más?

Sabemos que las tres últimas elecciones presidenciales se definieron por el voto latino y en esta ocasión serán 12 millones los que podrán votar en noviembre. No obstante, estos años han estado con Obama a pesar de que la reforma migratoria se ha quedado por lo pronto en espera. Del actual presidente demócrata conocemos sus políticas seguidas con México en todos los aspectos bilaterales. Desde seguridad hasta turismo. Lo sabemos como presidente y como individuo. Nos afectan las dificultades que ha enfrentado en su primera administración por no contar con la mayoría en el Congreso y por ver la gran parte de sus propuestas congeladas por los congresistas. Sabemos también que muy seguramente en una segunda administración podrían llevarse a cabo más fácilmente sus proyectos y muy seguramente nos dejaría ver, ahora sí, al verdadero Obama. Aquel que cayó ante la herencia de Bush, ante la crisis global y ante la falta de consensos internos.

Hasta ahora poco se ha dicho sobre el candidato republicano. A Mitt Romney no lo conocemos. Más allá de ser un hombre de derecha, de negocios y de leyes, tiene valores de familia muy arraigados pero de los precandidatos era el menos aceptado por el Tea Party. Hizo un matrimonio estable desde 1969, con cinco hijos y 16 nietos. Es mormón. Romney es hijo de padres estadounidenses pero con un antecedente interesante. Su padre nació en México. Por ley podría ser considerado mexicano, pero esto es algo a lo que no se le ha dado valor, pues nació aquí por razones circunstanciales. Sus abuelos vivieron temporalmente en el país. A sus cinco o seis años regresó a su tierra y toda su vida se desarrolló allá. Nunca mantuvo un vínculo con México y, a diferencia de George y Laura Bush, o de Bill Richardson, él no tiene lazos de familia mexicana. Veremos qué tanto Romney utiliza este hecho para acercarse a la comunidad hispana y, probablemente, ganar así un mayor número de votos. Dice que no lo hará, pero en política todo se vale. Tiene una visión muy definida sobre lo que debería de ser el papel de liderazgo de EU.

Ahora bien, ¿qué ha dicho de los temas que preocupan a los mexicanos? ¿Cuál es su discurso y propuestas? En el caso de migración, ha enfatizado que él no está en contra de la migración como se le acusó. Mantiene que la favorecerá pero en la medida en que sea legal. EU es un país de migrantes, dice. Lo que no ha cambiado es que tiene en mente castigar a los empleadores a través de una tarjeta, E-verify, con la que pretende conocer quiénes de sus empleados son ilegales y, en su caso, deportarlos. Habla de un proyecto de “autodeportación”, el cual es poco probable, ya que espera que voluntariamente varios millones de ilegales regresen a sus lugares de origen. Le preocupa la porosidad de la frontera, pues abre la posibilidad de que los ilegales entren a EU, con el riesgo de que muchos sean miembros del crimen organizado o bien terroristas. Buscaría la entrada de la población más preparada y con mayores credenciales académicas y laborales. A su vez propone proteger a los migrantes legales y ofrece apoyo para los 4.5 millones que esperan entrar legalmente. Mantiene que no le interesa regularizar a los ilegales, ya que éstos representan “magnetos” que favorecen la ilegalidad. Hasta ahora se ha opuesto a la amnistía. En materia de seguridad fronteriza, piensa terminar el muro, altamente tecnificado y contar con el número necesario de personal en la Patrulla Fronteriza para asegurar la estabilidad en la frontera sur. En materia de seguridad, menciono tan sólo que Romney pensaría continuar con la Iniciativa Mérida, pero toma como ejemplo muchas de las medidas instrumentadas en Colombia. Los niveles alcanzados de violencia y el rol jugado por el crimen organizado son un tema que mantendrá como prioridad. La cooperación militar, la capacitación y el desarrollo de inteligencia son tres políticas que no sólo mantendría, sino que intensificaría. En comercio, está a favor del libre comercio y propone continuar con NAFTA. Quiere una relación altamente institucional, pero mejorada en la medida en que se cuente con mayores niveles de institucionalidad en la democracia mexicana.

Todas son todavía ideas muy generales. Por parte de México, se debe cuidar la relación con ambos candidatos para evitar malentendidos bilaterales como los que se suscitaron en el pasado.
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