Defeat? Strategic Withdrawal? Maneuver?

Published in El Heraldo de México
(Afghanistan) on 11 April 2025
by José Carreño Figueras (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stephen Routledge. Edited by Patricia Simoni.
Trump never accepts defeat and always claims victory, no matter how bad things get.

True to his principles, President Donald Trump and his allies proclaim victory and genius even though, for most American analysts, by announcing a 90-day “pause” in the application of many of the tariffs announced a week ago, he acknowledged that his trade strategy was not working.

But the truth is that he did not back down and maintained the general tariff of 10%, as well as 25% for steel, aluminum, automobiles and auto parts, in addition to raising tariffs on China to 125%. If Trump and his courtiers are to be believed, this is a new phase of negotiation genius. “You have been watching the greatest economic master strategy from an American President in history," said Stephen Miller, Trump's deputy chief of staff for policy and one of the main anti-immigrant activists of the current regime.

Trump never accepts defeat and always proclaims victory, no matter how bad things get. And, once again, this is the case.

The reality is that his withdrawal was not a grand and generous concession, but a necessity resulting from the brutal negative political and economic reaction to his trade war with the world. Perhaps the tariffs imposed in response by Europe, China and Canada did not concern him as much as the domestic reaction: a stock market crash, with its effects on the economy in general, and a drop in his personal popularity.

In fact, it can be said that most Americans oppose his tariff plans, out of ideological conviction or convenience. As for the tariffs and their pause, it is a new basis for trade negotiations with 75 countries that, as Trump boasted at a public dinner with Republicans, had already “kissed his ass” in pursuit of bilateral agreements.

This contrasts with the opinion of some U.S. and international analysts and critics, for whom it was an “epic” retreat, just one week after his historic announcement of tariffs on (almost) everyone.

Among the accusations, however, one fact stands out: Trump governs by instinct, not with established plans, but in search of the greatest immediate effect for his image and his political position. In the face of his courtiers' admonitions about Trump's genius and his art of negotiation, the president himself highlighted the nervousness of many Americans and the need for flexibility.

In other words, can we talk of a setback, even a reversal? Yes, without a doubt. But the pause can hardly be seen as a definitive defeat for Trump's project and, in fact, a measure that, at best, can be marginalized, even forgotten, but which remains a latent threat.

In the case of the partners in the North American agreement — Mexico and Canada — the “pause” does not make much difference and highlights their vulnerability to pressures emanating from the whims of the White House.



Trump nunca acepta derrota y siempre proclama victoria, no importa que tan mal se encuentre

Fiel a sus principios, el presidente Donald Trump y sus aliados proclaman victoria y genialidad pese a que para la mayoría de los analistas estadounidenses, al anunciar una "pausa" de 90 días en la aplicación de muchos de los aranceles anunciados hace una semana, reconoció que su estrategia comercial no funcionaba.

Pero la verdad es que no quitó el dedo del renglón y mantuvo el arancel general del 10%, así como 25% para acero, aluminio, automóviles y autopartes, amén de elevar los aranceles a China hasta 125 por ciento. De creer al propio Trump y sus cortesanos, se trata de una nueva fase de negociación, de genialidad. "Han presenciado la mayor maestría de estrategia económica de un Presidente estadounidense en la historia", afirmó Stephen Miller, director adjunto de asesores de Trump y de los principales activistas antimigrantes del actual régimen.

Trump nunca acepta derrota y siempre proclama victoria, no importa que tan mal se encuentre. Y este es el caso.

La realidad es que su retiro no fue una grande y generosa concesión, sino una necesidad resultado de la brutal reacción negativa, política y económica, a su guerra comercial con el mundo. Tal vez los aranceles en respuesta de Europa, China y Canadá no le preocupaban tanto como la reacción doméstica: un desplome de la Bolsa de Valores, con sus efectos sobre la economía en general, una baja de su popularidad personal...

De hecho, puede decirse que la mayoría de los estadounidenses se opone a sus planes arancelarios, por convicción ideológica o por conveniencia, y en cuanto a las tarifas y su pausa, se trata en realidad de una nueva base de negociación comercial con 75 países que según Trump presumió en una cena pública con republicanos, ya fueron a "besarle el trasero" en busca de acuerdos bilaterales.
Eso contrasta con la opinión de algunos analistas y críticos estadounidenses e internacionales, para quienes fue una retirada "épica", sólo una semana después de su histórico anuncio de aranceles para (casi) todos.


De entre los señalamientos destaca sin embargo un hecho: Trump gobierna por instinto, no con planes establecidos, sino en busca del mayor efecto inmediato para su imagen y su posición política. Frente a las admoniciones de sus cortesanos sobre la genialidad de Trump y su arte de la negociación, el propio mandatario destacó el nerviosismo de muchos estadounidenses y la necesidad de flexibilidad.

En otras palabras ¿puede hablarse de un descalabro, hasta un retroceso? Si, sin duda. Pero está lejos de que la pausa pueda ser vista como una derrota definitiva para el proyecto de Trump y de hecho una medida que en el mejor de los casos podrá ser marginada, incluso olvidada, pero es una amenaza latente.

En el caso de los socios del acuerdo norteamericano, México y Canadá, la "pausa" no hace mayor diferencia y si pone de relieve su vulnerabilidad a las presiones emanadas del capricho de la Casa Blanca.
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