Self-Made Catch-22

Published in Neues Deutschland
(Germany) on 8 July 2014
by Roland Etzel (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by LeAnn Kearney. Edited by Kyrstie Lane.
The overthrow of the balance of power in the Middle East has reached a dynamic that came unexpectedly for many. Among them is the U.S. administration. Tens of thousands of military personnel in the region between Abu Dhabi and Ankara and a worldwide spy network have not put Washington in a position to be able to respond appropriately to current developments.

In Baghdad, Riyadh and Tehran, it is shocking that the superpower does not know what it should do. Is it the flood of data that it hoarded, but no longer controls? Is it a consequence of the American hubris of wanting to interfere with every country? Probably, among other things.

In this specific case, however, a grave personal weakness of the state department, namely its leaders, comes into it. Like his predecessor Hillary Clinton, current leader John Kerry has already most deplorably failed in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and in the revolutions from Tunisia to Egypt. Now they are faced with the problem that they have clearly made promises to political groups in the entire region, whose fulfillments are mutually exclusive. There is no escape from the self-made Kurd-Shiite-Sunni Catch-22 without losing. However, the admission of this is still lacking.


Roland Etzel zur Mittelostpolitik der USA

Die Umwälzung der Machtverhältnisse im Mittleren Osten hat eine Dynamik erreicht, die für viele unerwartet kam. Zu denen gehört auch die USA-Administration. Zehntausende von Militärangehörigen in der Region zwischen Abu Dhabi und Ankara und ein weltweites Spähnetzwerk haben Washington nicht in die Lage versetzt, auf aktuelle Entwicklungen angemessen reagieren zu können.

In Bagdad, Riad und Teheran ist man erstaunt, dass die Supermacht nicht weiß, was sie tun soll. Ist es die Flut an Daten, die sie hortet, aber nicht mehr beherrscht? Gehört es zu den Folgen US-amerikanischer Selbstüberhebung, in jedem Lande reinreden zu wollen? Bestimmt auch.

Im konkreten Fall aber kommt eine gravierende personelle Schwäche des State Departments, namentlich seiner Chefs, hinzu. Der jetzige, John Kerry, hat wie seine Vorgängerin, Hillary Clinton, bereits im israelisch-palästinensischen Konflikt und bei den Umwälzungen von Tunesien bis Ägypten kläglichst versagt. Jetzt stehen sie vor dem Problem, dass sie politischen Gruppen in der gesamten Region offenbar Versprechungen gemacht haben, deren Erfüllung sich gegenseitig ausschließt. Aus der selbstgebauten Kurden-Schiiten-Sunniten-Zwickmühle gibt es kein Entkommen ohne Verlust. Das Eingeständnis dessen fehlt aber noch.
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