Blinken’s Difficult Mission

339

February 1, 2023

Published in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
(Germany) on 30 January 2023
by Nikolas Busse (link to original link to original)

Translated from by Mallory Matsumoto. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.

The best that the U.S. secretary of state can hope for on his trip to the Middle East is confirmation of the precarious status quo. The prerequisites for a two-state solution have been lacking for years.

For years, the two-state solution that the U.S. secretary of state is promoting again in the Middle East has been more important to the West than to the parties in the conflict itself.

The two-state formula theoretically offers a neat solution. But in reality, the prerequisites to achieving it aren’t there and not only since the recent outbreak of violence. The biggest hurdles are the informal settlements on the one hand, the question of the right of return on the other hand, and exhaustion from negotiating on both sides. And then there is the Gaza problem on top of all that.

Netanyahu’s Coalition

As long as Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition includes politicians who support Israeli settlements and oppose a Palestinian state, nothing about the current situation will change. The best that Antony Blinken can hope for is what has already characterized the conflict in the Middle East for years: a confirmation of the precarious status quo that will be tested yet again in a few weeks or months.

The fact that Joe Biden’s administration does not trust Netanyahu does not help things. Netanyahu only has Washington’s support for a planned reconciliation with Saudi Arabia. Whether that is successful, however, depends on how Netanyahu acts with respect to the Palestinian question.

Blinkens schwierige Mission
Das Beste, worauf der amerikanische Außenminister auf seiner Nahostreise hoffen kann, ist die Bestätigung des prekären Status quo. Für eine Zweistaatenlösung fehlen seit Langem die Voraussetzungen.

Die Zweistaatenlösung, für die der amerikanische Au¬ßenminister jetzt wieder in Nahost wirbt, ist für den Westen seit Jahren wichtiger als für die Konfliktparteien selbst. Die Vereinigten Staaten und die EU befinden sich in einem schwierigen Balanceakt zwischen dem Bündnis mit Israel und den berechtigten Ansprüchen der Palästinenser.
Die Zwei-Staaten-Formel bietet da theoretisch eine saubere Lösung. In der Realität fehlen aber die Voraussetzungen, und das nicht erst seit den Gewalttaten der vergangenen Tage: Die größten Hindernisse sind der Siedlungsbau auf der einen, die Frage des Rückkehrrechts auf der anderen und die Verhandlungsmüdigkeit auf beiden Seiten. Das Gaza-Problem kommt noch hinzu.
Netanjahus Koalition
Solange Netanjahus Koalition mit Siedlerpolitikern und Gegnern eines Palästinenserstaats fortbesteht, wird sich daran nichts ändern. Das Beste, worauf Blinken hoffen kann, wäre das, was nun schon seit vielen Jahren den Nahostkonflikt kennzeichnet: eine Bestätigung des prekären Status quo, der dann in ein paar Wochen oder Monaten wieder herausgefordert wird.
Dass die Biden-Regierung Netanjahu misstraut, macht die Sa¬che nicht einfacher. Unterstützung aus Washington hat er nur bei der geplanten Aussöhnung mit Saudi-Arabien. Ob die gelingt, hängt allerdings auch davon ab, wie Netanjahu sich nun in der Palästinenserfrage verhält.

This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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