A Debacle Is Looming in Ukraine
Published in Frankfurter Rundschau
(Germany) on 29 December 2023
by Andreas Schwarzkopf (link to
original)
U.S. support is in danger of drying up, threatening more than just Ukraine's war goals.
With the last of U.S. military aid for Ukraine for the time being, a potential debacle for Kyiv and its Western allies is drawing ever closer. If, as expected, Congress continues arguing over support for Ukraine, Washington will soon be unable to send either weapons or money to Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Ukrainian government — which would lead to dramatic consequences.
Germany and the other EU countries could step in to fill some of the aid gaps for Kyiv, but they cannot fill all of them. The Ukrainian army could soon be unable to pay its soldiers and, because of dwindling ammunition supplies, no longer be able to fend off Russian attacks.
All of this not only threatens both Ukraine's war goals and European security, but also would seriously damage the credibility of the American-led West. This would not only please Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin, who has relied on lack of resistance from the West during the Ukrainian invasion. It would also please China and Iran, which are themselves watching to see how and whether the U.S. and its European allies continue to support Ukraine. They will then draw their own policy conclusions from that — i.e. Beijing's policy toward Taiwan and policy on Tehran in the Middle East.
With the last of U.S. military aid for Ukraine for the time being, a potential debacle for Kyiv and its Western allies is drawing ever closer. If, as expected, Congress continues arguing over support for Ukraine, Washington will soon be unable to send either weapons or money to Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Ukrainian government — which would lead to dramatic consequences.
Germany and the other EU countries could step in to fill some of the aid gaps for Kyiv, but they cannot fill all of them. The Ukrainian army could soon be unable to pay its soldiers and, because of dwindling ammunition supplies, no longer be able to fend off Russian attacks.
All of this not only threatens both Ukraine's war goals and European security, but also would seriously damage the credibility of the American-led West. This would not only please Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin, who has relied on lack of resistance from the West during the Ukrainian invasion. It would also please China and Iran, which are themselves watching to see how and whether the U.S. and its European allies continue to support Ukraine. They will then draw their own policy conclusions from that — i.e. Beijing's policy toward Taiwan and policy on Tehran in the Middle East.
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