US-EU Estrangement and Global Disorder
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The trans-Atlantic alliance was the most important force for stability in the global order established after World War II while the U.S. and Europe functioned as stabilizers during and after the Cold War. Today, as the U.S. and Europe slowly drift apart, the global order is losing a constant supportive power and undoubtedly will become increasingly fragmented.
The war in Iran has accelerated the erosion of the U.S. in its key role of stabilizing the world; the traditional trans-Atlantic alliance model is also crumbling. The U.S., which once dominated global rules, who subdued others with military and economic power, is withdrawing from the center of the world stage with alarming speed. This isn’t a dramatic collapse, but a slow yet irreversible decline.
For a long time, NATO has been the cornerstone of America’s global leadership power, while Europe has been America’s most faithful follower. However, all of this is now undergoing a fundamental change.
In March 2024, the European Union proposed the first “European Defense Industrial Strategy,” which aimed to significantly enhance the EU’s defense industry capabilities by 2035. The strategy explicitly required member states to allocate “at least 50% of their defense procurement budget” to internal EU activity by 2030, and to reach 60% by 2035. This implies that hundreds of billions of euros in annual military spending will no longer flow into the pockets of American arms manufacturers.
In March 2025, the EU launched the “ReArm Europe” initiative, planning to invest 800 billion euros to promote defense autonomy and reduce security reliance on the U.S.
After the adoption of the first White Paper for European Defense — Readiness 2030,” the EU further proposed establishing a defense supply chain that relied completely on the EU itself, and the EU intends to expand national defense procurement to avoid deep integration with the U.S. military. These measures send a clear signal: At a strategic level, Europe is “decoupling” from the U.S.
The U.S. military threat is losing its power and the changes occurring on an economic and technological level are equally profound. Casting off reliance on U.S. technology was once the hardest knot to untangle, but work in this direction is accelerating. On June 4, 2026, the European Parliament reduced its dependence on U.S. tech giants to promote “digital sovereignty.” In sensitive areas such as critical governmental infrastructure, the E.U. is striving to reduce the risk of U.S. extraterritorial jurisdiction.
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If changes in defense and the economy are strategic decisions, then the collapse of trust among allies is a deeper wound in America’s decline.
The New York Times pointed out that the effect of America’s declining strength is most pronounced in Europe, which has long relied on NATO and the U.S. for security guarantees. However, Europeans have begun to distinguish between trust in the U.S. from their in Donald Trump. A survey commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations, showed that one in four Europeans now view the U.S. as a competitor or even a hostile nation.
NATO is changing from a military and political alliance bound by common values into a framework for survival of the fittest based on strength. The U.S. is dismantling the international order that it itself built. The U.S. remains a geopolitical player, still powerful and still capable of causing shockwaves at times. But it has become a sluggish beast , an increasingly isolationist nation. The United States is clearly withdrawing from the institutional hegemonic framework it built, funded and led for almost 80 years.
America’s global leadership originated in World War I and became established in World War II. Today, however, the world’s perception of the United States is fundamentally changing, and many countries are losing faith in its ability to lead.
The United States is mired in a confusing and even systemic crisis of national identity, global role and future destiny. From defense autonomy to trade retaliation, from technological decoupling to the alienation of allies, countries are taking action to to answer a question that was once unimaginable: What should the world do when the United States is no longer trustworthy or capable of leading? A new world order that no longer blindly follows the U.S. is quietly growing on top of the old order.
The trans-Atlantic alliance was the most important force for stability in the global order established after World War II while the U.S. and Europe functioned as stabilizers during and after the Cold War. Today, as the U.S. and Europe slowly drift apart, the global order is losing a constant supportive power and undoubtedly will become increasingly fragmented.
The war in Iran has accelerated the erosion of the U.S. in its key role of stabilizing the world; the traditional trans-Atlantic alliance model is also crumbling. The U.S., which once dominated global rules, who subdued others with military and economic power, is withdrawing from the center of the world stage with alarming speed. This isn’t a dramatic collapse, but a slow yet irreversible decline.
For a long time, NATO has been the cornerstone of America’s global leadership power, while Europe has been America’s most faithful follower. However, all of this is now undergoing a fundamental change.
In March 2024, the European Union proposed the first “European Defense Industrial Strategy,” which aimed to significantly enhance the EU’s defense industry capabilities by 2035. The strategy explicitly required member states to allocate “at least 50% of their defense procurement budget” to internal EU activity by 2030, and to reach 60% by 2035. This implies that hundreds of billions of euros in annual military spending will no longer flow into the pockets of American arms manufacturers.
In March 2025, the EU launched the “ReArm Europe” initiative, planning to invest 800 billion euros to promote defense autonomy and reduce security reliance on the U.S.
After the adoption of the first White Paper for European Defense — Readiness 2030,” the EU further proposed establishing a defense supply chain that relied completely on the EU itself, and the EU intends to expand national defense procurement to avoid deep integration with the U.S. military. These measures send a clear signal: At a strategic level, Europe is “decoupling” from the U.S.
The U.S. military threat is losing its power and the changes occurring on an economic and technological level are equally profound. Casting off reliance on U.S. technology was once the hardest knot to untangle, but work in this direction is accelerating. On June 4, 2026, the European Parliament reduced its dependence on U.S. tech giants to promote “digital sovereignty.” In sensitive areas such as critical governmental infrastructure, the E.U. is striving to reduce the risk of U.S. extraterritorial jurisdiction.
Image AI-Generated
If changes in defense and the economy are strategic decisions, then the collapse of trust among allies is a deeper wound in America’s decline.
The New York Times pointed out that the effect of America’s declining strength is most pronounced in Europe, which has long relied on NATO and the U.S. for security guarantees. However, Europeans have begun to distinguish between trust in the U.S. from their in Donald Trump. A survey commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations, showed that one in four Europeans now view the U.S. as a competitor or even a hostile nation.
NATO is changing from a military and political alliance bound by common values into a framework for survival of the fittest based on strength. The U.S. is dismantling the international order that it itself built. The U.S. remains a geopolitical player, still powerful and still capable of causing shockwaves at times. But it has become a sluggish beast , an increasingly isolationist nation. The United States is clearly withdrawing from the institutional hegemonic framework it built, funded and led for almost 80 years.
America’s global leadership originated in World War I and became established in World War II. Today, however, the world’s perception of the United States is fundamentally changing, and many countries are losing faith in its ability to lead.
The United States is mired in a confusing and even systemic crisis of national identity, global role and future destiny. From defense autonomy to trade retaliation, from technological decoupling to the alienation of allies, countries are taking action to to answer a question that was once unimaginable: What should the world do when the United States is no longer trustworthy or capable of leading? A new world order that no longer blindly follows the U.S. is quietly growing on top of the old order.
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