Half a Year of the Iran War: US Should Take an Honest Look at Failure

Published in Kobe Shimbun
(Japan) on 28 August 2026
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Dorothy Phoenix. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
Today marks half a year since the U.S. and Israel launched a war with Iran. The exchange of attacks has maintained a steady pace, but the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transport path, remains effectively blocked, crude oil prices are still high, and the global economy continues to be in chaos.

In June, the U.S. reached a memorandum of understanding with Iran toward ending the war. However, the 60-day negotiation period has expired, and conflict regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz persists. It’s possible that the fighting might once again intensify, with no prospect of resuming negotiations.

The U.S. side declared that it will inflict an historic “single financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary," and it has set forth a policy of targeting five sectors, including digital assets, of any country that continues to do business with Iran. The aim of this strengthened economic pressure is to draw Iran to the negotiating table for compromise, but China, Iran's greatest trade partner, vehemently opposes the measures, and it is unclear if the sanctions will get stronger. After all, the sequence of imposing economic sanctions after military operations is extremely irrational.

The attacks against Iran, a nation that the aggressors deemed an imminent threat without showing any basis, were carried out without consulting the U.N. Security Council, and from the start, NATO member nations have distanced themselves. President Donald Trump has sought cooperation with the attacks, hinting that he might reconsider relationships with allied nations, but on the contrary, the rift with European countries has widened.

It must be said that the diplomatic technique of Trump, who achieves political goals through the support of overwhelming military force, as well as pressure on not just enemy nations, but also allies, has reached its limit.

The purpose of the attacks has also become hard to see. With a change in the Iranian regime in view, the U.S. killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a bombing, but embroiling countless civilians in the attacks had the adverse effect of incurring backlash from the Iranian people. A mutual consensus toward halting Iran's nuclear development program is also nowhere near. Trump must take a straight look at this failure.

We also hope for a calm response from the Iranian side. On the receiving end of the U.S. policy of strengthened sanctions, Iranian leadership views countries that participate in the sanctions as enemies, and continues to take an unyielding posture of insisting on attacking U.S. enterprises' oil-related facilities. The will of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is controlled by religious leaders, is visibly strong, but internally, there is also movement to search for an early end to the war.

On the basis of the memorandum of understanding reached in June, leadership should hasten toward an end to the wartime destruction and reopening of free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

A trend has emerged in which Middle Eastern countries, disregarding the influence of the U.S., which thinks little of international order, are eyeing a move to a framework to independently ensure their own national security. We hope that the U.S. will step back and take the stance of supporting these movements. Regarding Israel, which strongly insists on continuing the fighting, a strong call for self-restraint is also crucial. Japan, which has cordial relations with both the U.S. and Iran, should strengthen its encouragement of both nations and contribute to the stability of the situation in the Middle East.


<社説>イラン攻撃半年/米国は「失敗」を直視せよ

米国とイスラエルがイランへの攻撃に踏み切ってからきょうで半年になる。攻撃の応酬は小康状態を保っているが、エネルギー輸送の要衝ホルムズ海峡の実質封鎖は続き、原油価格が高止まりするなど、世界経済の混乱は続いている。

 米国は6月、イランと戦闘終結に向けた覚書を交わした。しかし、ホルムズ海峡の管理を巡って対立したまま60日間の交渉期限が過ぎた。交渉再開のめどは立たず、戦闘が再び激化する可能性もある。

 米側は「史上最も厳しい制裁」を科すと表明し、イランとの経済取引を続ける国のデジタル資産など5分野を対象にする方針を打ち出した。経済圧力を強め譲歩を引き出す狙いだが、イランの最大貿易国である中国は強く反発し、制裁の包囲網が強まるかどうかは不透明だ。そもそも軍事行動の後に経済制裁を科す手順は不合理極まりない。


 国連安全保障理事会に諮らず、差し迫った脅威の根拠も示さないイラン攻撃に対し、北大西洋条約機構(NATO)の加盟国は当初から距離を置いている。トランプ米大統領は同盟関係の見直しを示唆して攻撃への協力を求め、かえって欧州各国などとの溝を広げた。

 圧倒的な軍事力を背景に、敵対国のみならず同盟国に対しても圧力をかけ、政治目標を達成するトランプ米大統領の外交手法は、限界を迎えていると言わざるを得ない。

 攻撃の目的も見えなくなっている。イランの体制転換を視野に入れ、最高指導者ハメネイ師を爆殺したが、多くの民間人を巻き添えにしたことから逆に市民らの反発を招いた。核兵器の開発阻止に向けた合意にもほど遠い。トランプ氏は失敗を直視しなければならない。

 イラン側にも冷静な対応を求めたい。米側の制裁強化方針を受け、指導部は制裁に加わる国を敵とみなし、米企業の石油関連施設などへの攻撃を主張するなど強硬姿勢を続ける。宗教指導者が直轄するイラン革命防衛隊の意向が強いとみられるが、内部には早期の戦闘終結を模索する動きもあるとされる。

 指導部は6月に合意した覚書を基に、戦火の終息とホルムズ海峡の自由通航再開を急ぐべきだ。


 国際秩序を軽視する米国の影響力低下を尻目に、中東諸国が独自に安全保障の枠組みを目指す動きが出ている。米国は一歩引いてこれらの動きを支援する役割に徹してもらいたい。戦闘継続を強く主張するイスラエルに対し、自制を強く呼びかけることも欠かせない。

 米国、イランと友好関係を持つ日本は、双方への働きかけを強め、中東情勢安定に寄与する必要がある。
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