North Korea, China and Taiwan: What Game Is Trump Playing?

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in mid-May in Beijing, and they will meet again in the U.S. in early September. U.S.-China relations have attracted much international political observation and commentary during this period and depend on Trump’s shifting words and actions. According to a U.S. media report in late August, Trump’s “Taiwan two-step tango” is about to begin. He has perhaps determined that the U.S. has no reason to go to war with Beijing if China attacks Taiwan. He is using Taiwan as a bargaining chip to reach an agreement with Xi: China won’t attack Taiwan, and in exchange the U.S. won’t protect Taiwan. This agreement would improve U.S.-China relations and alleviate tensions in the Korean Peninsula.

In an opinion piece published by The Hill, Harlan Ullman, senior adviser at the Washington think tank, Atlantic Council, mentioned the above points, and also stated why Taiwan has yet to fully implement its “porcupine defense.” The Kuomintang controls the Legislative Yuan, which China might believe signifies that, at some point, Taiwan will eventually choose to be integrated with China, and Taiwan fears Trump will speed up this process. Ullman also discusses how Trump might bring up nuclear weapons with Xi as insurance for Taiwan: If China attacks Taiwan, nuclear weapon use can turn it into a disaster. Although much of the piece is speculative, the reality is that the number of Americans opposed to going to war with China since the U.S.-Iran war has only increased.

In addition to focusing on the U.S.-Iran war, Trump is manipulating relations with China and North Korea. He recently made overtures to Kim Jong Un, causing unease among Asian allies. The postponed approval for arms sales to Taiwan has caused Taiwan, closely watching the Trump-Xi September meeting, to carefully assess America’s security commitments. Reuters has reported that Trump’s actions have caused the rest of the world to worry that his unpredictable style will damage relationships with long-term allies that maintain regional peace. This will lead U.S. allies in Asia to reassess their reliance on and trust in Washington.

Distrust in the U.S. and Trump is tiresome and gives China and Russia the opportunity to spread misinformation, confusing international public perception and creating chaos in the U.S. Still, Trump’s erratic behavior and words foster an environment for this suspicion to grow, which unfortunately requires self-reflection. With his “big boss” personality and belief in his own intelligence, Trump manipulates all sorts of situations, claiming victory regardless of whether he wins or loses. In an isolationist U.S., this might allow him to keep looking out for his own interests. However, it does little to benefit allies.

Whatever the game the U.S. is playing with North Korea and China, it greatly concerns Taiwan’s security. However, Taiwan relies on the U.S. for survival and has no margin for doubt in the U.S. or Trump. We can only adapt to the changing circumstances, whether they’re good or bad.